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Bitcoin and gold prices: A fledging long-term relationship

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  • Syed Zwick, Hélène
  • Syed, Sarfaraz Ali Shah

Abstract

This study applies threshold regression model in a bivariate framework to explore the nonlinear and long-term relationship among daily Bitcoin and gold prices over the period April 2010 to December 2018. Our empirical results are threefold: first, we show that gold is a significant predictor of Bitcoin prices. Second, we find evidence of a non-linear relationship between Bitcoin and gold prices characterized rather by a two-regime relationship with a structural break occurring in October 2017. Third, we explain the existence at before the break, there is statistically significant, negative but weak causality indicating that Bitcoin is a speculative asset. However, after the break, the relationship becomes positive and strong revealing the diversifier and hedge properties of Bitcoin.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Zwick, Hélène & Syed, Sarfaraz Ali Shah, 2019. "Bitcoin and gold prices: A fledging long-term relationship," MPRA Paper 92512, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92512
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:agr:journl:v:1(590):y:2014:i:1(590):p:103-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Does Bitcoin hedge global uncertainty? Evidence from wavelet-based quantile-in-quantile regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 87-95.
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    4. Bouri, Elie & Azzi, Georges & Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2017. "On the return-volatility relationship in the Bitcoin market around the price crash of 2013," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 11, pages 1-16.
    5. Bouri, Elie & Molnár, Peter & Azzi, Georges & Roubaud, David & Hagfors, Lars Ivar, 2017. "On the hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin: Is it really more than a diversifier?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 192-198.
    6. Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2017. "Volatility estimation for Bitcoin: A comparison of GARCH models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 3-6.
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    9. Angela ROGOJANU & Liana BADEA, 2014. "The issue of competing currencies. Case study – Bitcoin," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(590)), pages 103-114, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mensi, Walid & El Khoury, Rim & Ali, Syed Riaz Mahmood & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Quantile dependencies and connectedness between the gold and cryptocurrency markets: Effects of the COVID-19 crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes & André Fluminense Carneiro, 2020. "A Comprehensive Statistical Analysis of the Six Major Crypto-Currencies from August 2015 through June 2020," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, August.
    3. Aysu Ahmadova & Taghi Guliyev & Khatai Aliyev, 2024. "The Relationship between Bitcoin and Nasdaq, U.S. Dollar Index and Commodities," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 281-289, January.
    4. Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Kliber, Agata, 2022. "Can cryptocurrencies hedge oil price fluctuations? A pandemic perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Duc Huynh, Toan Luu & Burggraf, Tobias & Wang, Mei, 2020. "Gold, platinum, and expected Bitcoin returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; gold prices; hedge; diversifier; structural break; threshold regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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