IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v10y2022i22p4255-d972366.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using Market News Sentiment Analysis for Stock Market Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Marian Pompiliu Cristescu

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, 550324 Sibiu, Romania)

  • Raluca Andreea Nerisanu

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, 550324 Sibiu, Romania)

  • Dumitru Alexandru Mara

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, 550324 Sibiu, Romania)

  • Simona-Vasilica Oprea

    (Department of Economic Informatics and Cybernetics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010374 Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

(1) Background: Since the current crises that has inevitably impacted the financial market, market prediction has become more crucial than ever. The question of how risk managers can more accurately predict the evolution of their portfolio, while taking into consideration systemic risks brought on by a systemic crisis, is raised by the low rate of success of portfolio risk-management models. Sentiment analysis on natural language sentences can increase the accuracy of market prediction because financial markets are influenced by investor sentiments. Many investors also base their decisions on information taken from newspapers or on their instincts. (2) Methods: In this paper, we aim to highlight how sentiment analysis can improve the accuracy of regression models when predicting the evolution of the opening prices of some selected stocks. We aim to accomplish this by comparing the results and accuracy of two cases of market prediction using regression models with and without market news sentiment analysis. (3) Results: It is shown that the nonlinear autoregression model improves its goodness of fit when sentiment analysis is used as an exogenous factor. Furthermore, the results show that the polynomial autoregressions fit better than the linear ones. (4) Conclusions: Using the sentiment score for market modelling, significant improvements in the performance of linear autoregressions are showcased.

Suggested Citation

  • Marian Pompiliu Cristescu & Raluca Andreea Nerisanu & Dumitru Alexandru Mara & Simona-Vasilica Oprea, 2022. "Using Market News Sentiment Analysis for Stock Market Prediction," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(22), pages 1-12, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:22:p:4255-:d:972366
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/22/4255/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/22/4255/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Siganos, Antonios & Vagenas-Nanos, Evangelos & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2017. "Divergence of sentiment and stock market trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 130-141.
    2. Deniz Can Yıldırım & Ismail Hakkı Toroslu & Ugo Fiore, 2021. "Forecasting directional movement of Forex data using LSTM with technical and macroeconomic indicators," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, December.
    3. Zhou, Zhongbao & Gao, Meng & Liu, Qing & Xiao, Helu, 2020. "Forecasting stock price movements with multiple data sources: Evidence from stock market in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).
    4. Michela Nardo & Marco Petracco-Giudici & Minás Naltsidis, 2016. "Walking Down Wall Street With A Tablet: A Survey Of Stock Market Predictions Using The Web," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 356-369, April.
    5. Xi Zhang & Yunjia Zhang & Senzhang Wang & Yuntao Yao & Binxing Fang & Philip S. Yu, 2018. "Improving Stock Market Prediction via Heterogeneous Information Fusion," Papers 1801.00588, arXiv.org.
    6. Perry Sadorsky, 2021. "A Random Forests Approach to Predicting Clean Energy Stock Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-20, January.
    7. Ronald Hochreiter, 2015. "Computing trading strategies based on financial sentiment data using evolutionary optimization," Papers 1504.02972, arXiv.org.
    8. Traianos-Ioannis Theodorou & Alexandros Zamichos & Michalis Skoumperdis & Anna Kougioumtzidou & Kalliopi Tsolaki & Dimitris Papadopoulos & Thanasis Patsios & George Papanikolaou & Athanasios Konstanti, 2021. "An AI-Enabled Stock Prediction Platform Combining News and Social Sensing with Financial Statements," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-22, May.
    9. Dev Shah & Haruna Isah & Farhana Zulkernine, 2019. "Stock Market Analysis: A Review and Taxonomy of Prediction Techniques," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-22, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhou, Zhongbao & Gao, Meng & Xiao, Helu & Wang, Rui & Liu, Wenbin, 2021. "Big data and portfolio optimization: A novel approach integrating DEA with multiple data sources," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    2. Cristescu Marian Pompiliu & Nerişanu Raluca Andreea & Mara Dumitru Alexandru, 2022. "Using Data Mining in the Sentiment Analysis Process on the Financial Market," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 11(1-2), pages 36-58, December.
    3. Kamaladdin Fataliyev & Aneesh Chivukula & Mukesh Prasad & Wei Liu, 2021. "Stock Market Analysis with Text Data: A Review," Papers 2106.12985, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    4. Htet Htet Htun & Michael Biehl & Nicolai Petkov, 2023. "Survey of feature selection and extraction techniques for stock market prediction," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.
    5. Hakan Pabuccu & Adrian Barbu, 2023. "Feature Selection with Annealing for Forecasting Financial Time Series," Papers 2303.02223, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    6. Day, Min-Yuh & Ni, Yensen, 2023. "Do clean energy indices outperform using contrarian strategies based on contrarian trading rules?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    7. Hakan Pabuccu & Adrian Barbu, 2024. "Feature selection with annealing for forecasting financial time series," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, December.
    8. Andrew Todd & James Bowden & Yashar Moshfeghi, 2024. "Text‐based sentiment analysis in finance: Synthesising the existing literature and exploring future directions," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), March.
    9. Mariano González-Sánchez & M. Encina Morales de Vega, 2021. "Influence of Bloomberg’s Investor Sentiment Index: Evidence from European Union Financial Sector," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, February.
    10. Linyi Yang & Yingpeng Ma & Yue Zhang, 2023. "Measuring Consistency in Text-based Financial Forecasting Models," Papers 2305.08524, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    11. Saqib Farid & Rubeena Tashfeen & Tahseen Mohsan & Arsal Burhan, 2023. "Forecasting stock prices using a data mining method: Evidence from emerging market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1911-1917, April.
    12. František Dařena & Jan Přichystal, 2018. "Analysis of the Association between Topics in Online Documents and Stock Price Movements," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 66(6), pages 1431-1439.
    13. Zhou, Zhongbao & Gao, Meng & Liu, Qing & Xiao, Helu, 2020. "Forecasting stock price movements with multiple data sources: Evidence from stock market in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).
    14. Arpan Kumar Kar & P. S. Varsha & Shivakami Rajan, 2023. "Unravelling the Impact of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) in Industrial Applications: A Review of Scientific and Grey Literature," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 24(4), pages 659-689, December.
    15. Farid Bagheri & Diego Reforgiato Recupero & Espen Sirnes, 2023. "Leveraging Return Prediction Approaches for Improved Value-at-Risk Estimation," Data, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-22, August.
    16. Day, Min-Yuh & Ni, Yensen, 2023. "The profitability of seasonal trading timing: Insights from energy-related markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    17. María José Ayala & Nicolás Gonzálvez-Gallego & Rocío Arteaga-Sánchez, 2024. "Google search volume index and investor attention in stock market: a systematic review," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-29, December.
    18. Emna Mnif & Anis Jarboui & M. Kabir Hassan & Khaireddine Mouakhar, 2020. "Big data tools for Islamic financial analysis," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 10-21, January.
    19. Daiki Matsunaga & Toyotaro Suzumura & Toshihiro Takahashi, 2019. "Exploring Graph Neural Networks for Stock Market Predictions with Rolling Window Analysis," Papers 1909.10660, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
    20. Ali, Fahad & Bouri, Elie & Naifar, Nader & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & AlAhmad, Mohammad, 2022. "An examination of whether gold-backed Islamic cryptocurrencies are safe havens for international Islamic equity markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:22:p:4255-:d:972366. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.