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Predicting Change in Emotion through Ordinal Patterns and Simple Symbolic Expressions

Author

Listed:
  • Yair Neuman

    (The Functor Lab, Department of Cognitive and Brain Science, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva 84105, Israel)

  • Yochai Cohen

    (The Functor Lab, Department of Cognitive and Brain Science, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva 84105, Israel)

Abstract

Human interlocutors may use emotions as an important signaling device for coordinating an interaction. In this context, predicting a significant change in a speaker’s emotion may be important for regulating the interaction. Given the nonlinear and noisy nature of human conversations and relatively short time series they produce, such a predictive model is an open challenge, both for modeling human behavior and in engineering artificial intelligence systems for predicting change. In this paper, we present simple and theoretically grounded models for predicting the direction of change in emotion during conversation. We tested our approach on textual data from several massive conversations corpora and two different cultures: Chinese (Mandarin) and American (English). The results converge in suggesting that change in emotion may be successfully predicted, even with regard to very short, nonlinear, and noisy interactions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yair Neuman & Yochai Cohen, 2022. "Predicting Change in Emotion through Ordinal Patterns and Simple Symbolic Expressions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(13), pages 1-18, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:13:p:2253-:d:849035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Borges, João B. & Ramos, Heitor S. & Mini, Raquel A.F. & Rosso, Osvaldo A. & Frery, Alejandro C. & Loureiro, Antonio A.F., 2019. "Learning and distinguishing time series dynamics via ordinal patterns transition graphs," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 362(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V. & Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2018. "When should we use simple decision models? A synthesis of various research strands," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 17-25.
    3. Christoph Bandt, 2020. "Order patterns, their variation and change points in financial time series and Brownian motion," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1565-1588, August.
    4. Makridakis, Spyros & Taleb, Nassim, 2009. "Living in a world of low levels of predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 840-844, October.
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