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A Coupled Mathematical Model of the Dissemination Route of Short-Term Fund-Raising Fraud

Author

Listed:
  • Shan Yang

    (School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China)

  • Kaijun Su

    (School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China)

  • Bing Wang

    (School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China)

  • Zitong Xu

    (School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China)

Abstract

To effectively protect citizens’ property from the infringement of fund-raising fraud, it is necessary to investigate the dissemination, identification, and causation of fund-raising fraud. In this study, the Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model, Back-Propagation (BP) neural network, Fault tree, and Bayesian network were used to analyze the dissemination, identification, and causation of fund-raising fraud. Firstly, relevant data about fund-raising fraud were collected from residents in the same area via a questionnaire survey. Secondly, the SIR model was used to simulate the dissemination of victims, susceptibles, alerts, and fraud amount; the BP neural network was used to identify the data of financial fraud and change the accuracy of the number analysis of neurons and hidden layers; the fault-tree model and the Bayesian network model were employed to analyze the causation and importance of basic events. Finally, the security measures of fund-raising fraud were simulated by changing the dissemination parameters. The results show that (1) for the spread of the scam, the scale of the victims expands sharply with the increase of the fraud cycle, and the victims of the final fraud cycle account for 12.5% of people in the region; (2) for the source of infection of the scam, the initial recognition rate of fraud by the BP neural network varies from 90.9% to 93.9%; (3) for the victims of the scam, reducing fraud publicity, improving risk awareness, and strengthening fraud supervision can effectively reduce the probability of fraud; and (4) reducing the fraud rate can reduce the number of victims and delay the outbreak time. Improving the alert rate can reduce victims on a large scale. Strengthening supervision can restrict the scale of victims and prolong the duration of fraud.

Suggested Citation

  • Shan Yang & Kaijun Su & Bing Wang & Zitong Xu, 2022. "A Coupled Mathematical Model of the Dissemination Route of Short-Term Fund-Raising Fraud," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-23, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:10:p:1709-:d:817203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Hongyan Dui & Jiaying Song & Yun-an Zhang, 2023. "Reliability and Service Life Analysis of Airbag Systems," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-13, January.

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