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Spatially explicit models to analyze forest loss and fragmentation between 1976 and 2020 in southern Chile

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  • Echeverria, Cristian
  • Coomes, David A.
  • Hall, Myrna
  • Newton, Adrian C.

Abstract

Forest fragmentation threatens biodiversity in one of the last remaining temperate rainforests that occur in South America. We study the current and future impacts of fragmentation on spatial configuration of forest habitats at the landscape level time in southern Chile. For this purpose, we identify the geophysical variables (“pattern drivers”) that explain the spatial patterns of forest loss and fragmentation between 1976 and 1999 using both a GIS-based land-use change model (GEOMOD) and spatially explicit logistic regression. Then, we project where and how much forest fragmentation will occur in the future by extrapolation of the current rate of deforestation to 2010 and 2020. Both modeling approaches showed consistent and complementary results in terms of the pattern drivers that were most related to deforestation. Between 1976 and 1999, forest fragmentation has occurred mainly from the edges of small fragments situated on gentle slopes (less than 10°) and far away from rivers. We predict that patch density will decline from 2010 to 2020, and that total forest interior area and patch proximity will further decline as a result of forest fragmentation. Drivers identified by these approaches suggest that deforestation is associated with observed local socio-economic activities such as clearance of forest for pasture and crops and forest logging for fuelwood.

Suggested Citation

  • Echeverria, Cristian & Coomes, David A. & Hall, Myrna & Newton, Adrian C., 2008. "Spatially explicit models to analyze forest loss and fragmentation between 1976 and 2020 in southern Chile," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 212(3), pages 439-449.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:212:y:2008:i:3:p:439-449
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.10.045
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Gilmore Pontius Jr. & Aditya Agrawal & Diana Huffaker, 2003. "Estimating the uncertainty of land-cover extrapolations while constructing a raster map from tabular data," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 253-273, November.
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    1. Von Thaden, Juan José & Laborde, Javier & Guevara, Sergio & Venegas-Barrera, Crystian S., 2018. "Forest cover change in the Los Tuxtlas Biosphere Reserve and its future: The contribution of the 1998 protected natural area decree," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 443-450.
    2. Martín Piazzon & Asier R Larrinaga & Luis Santamaría, 2011. "Are Nested Networks More Robust to Disturbance? A Test Using Epiphyte-Tree, Comensalistic Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(5), pages 1-10, May.
    3. Marín, Sandra L. & Nahuelhual, Laura & Echeverría, Cristian & Grant, William E., 2011. "Projecting landscape changes in southern Chile: Simulation of human and natural processes driving land transformation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(15), pages 2841-2855.
    4. Xiaoqing Zhao & Junwei Pu & Xingyou Wang & Junxu Chen & Liang Emlyn Yang & Zexian Gu, 2018. "Land-Use Spatio-Temporal Change and Its Driving Factors in an Artificial Forest Area in Southwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-19, November.
    5. Yirigui Yirigui & Sang-Woo Lee & A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi, 2019. "Multi-Scale Assessment of Relationships between Fragmentation of Riparian Forests and Biological Conditions in Streams," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-24, September.
    6. Pablo Cuenca & Cristian Echeverria, 2017. "How do protected landscapes associated with high biodiversity and population levels change?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, July.
    7. César J. Pérez & Carl A. Smith, 2019. "Indigenous Knowledge Systems and Conservation of Settled Territories in the Bolivian Amazon," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-41, November.
    8. Lei Zhang & Yanfang Liu & Xiaojian Wei, 2017. "Forest Fragmentation and Driving Forces in Yingkou, Northeastern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-19, March.
    9. Shengjun Yan & Xuan Wang & Yanpeng Cai & Chunhui Li & Rui Yan & Guannan Cui & Zhifeng Yang, 2018. "An Integrated Investigation of Spatiotemporal Habitat Quality Dynamics and Driving Forces in the Upper Basin of Miyun Reservoir, North China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-17, December.
    10. César Benavidez-Silva & Magdalena Jensen & Patricio Pliscoff, 2021. "Future Scenarios for Land Use in Chile: Identifying Drivers of Change and Impacts over Protected Area System," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, April.
    11. Wang, Qian & Malanson, George P., 2008. "Spatial hyperdynamism in a post-disturbance simulated forest," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 215(4), pages 337-344.
    12. Juan Von Thaden & Gilberto Binnqüist-Cervantes & Octavio Pérez-Maqueo & Debora Lithgow, 2022. "Half-Century of Forest Change in a Neotropical Peri-Urban Landscape: Drivers and Trends," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-14, April.
    13. Pablo Cuenca & Juan Robalino & Rodrigo Arriagada & Cristian Echeverría, 2018. "Are government incentives effective for avoided deforestation in the tropical Andean forest?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-14, September.
    14. Siqi Sun & Yihe Lü & Da Lü & Cong Wang, 2021. "Quantifying the Variability of Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability in the Largest Water Tower Region Globally," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-18, July.
    15. Wu, Daqian & Liu, Jian & Zhang, Gaosheng & Ding, Wenjuan & Wang, Wei & Wang, Renqing, 2009. "Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into cellular automata model: An application to the dynamics of Chinese tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis Lour.)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(24), pages 3490-3498.
    16. Newman, Minke E. & McLaren, Kurt P. & Wilson, Byron S., 2018. "Using the forest-transition model and a proximate cause of deforestation to explain long-term forest cover trends in a Caribbean forest," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 395-408.

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