Farmland Abandonment and Afforestation—Socioeconomic and Biophysical Patterns of Land Use Change at the Municipal Level in Galicia, Northwest Spain

Over the last few years, new land use planning instruments to reduce the negative consequences of recent land use/cover changes (farmland abandonment, wildfires) have been proposed in Galicia (northwest Spain). Understanding the complex relationship between biophysical constraints, socioeconomic drivers and land use/cover changes is paramount for their successful implementation. In this work, we present an analysis of recent (2005–2017) land use/cover changes in the region, along with a classification of municipalities in homogeneous groups with different patterns of land use and land use change. We then characterize those groups regarding the demographic and employment structure, the economic performance, the characteristics of the primary sector, the land ownership structure and the relative importance of recent wildfire events and the biophysical suitability for the main productions of the primary sector in the region. The results allowed us to identify four different groups of municipalities which are clearly separated by specific patterns of land use (an area where most of the population lives, an area devoted to forest production, another for farming production and a final one dominated by semi-natural covers). These four areas followed a gradient of decreasing levels of population density and economic activity. While land use patterns in different areas could be explained largely by biophysical suitability, the fragmentation of land ownership emerged as a relevant factor, which can explain the greater presence of farmland abandonment—and, therefore, higher wildfire risk—in certain areas. These results offer relevant guidelines for the successful implementation of the new land use planning instruments in the region.