IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v13y2024i8p1267-d1454620.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ecological Security Pattern Construction and Multi-Scenario Risk Early Warning (2020–2035) in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, China

Author

Listed:
  • Junjie Ma

    (School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China)

  • Zhixiong Mei

    (School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China)

  • Xinyu Wang

    (School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China)

  • Sichen Li

    (School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China)

  • Jiangsen Liang

    (School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China)

Abstract

The effectiveness of ecological security patterns (ESPs) in maintaining regional ecological stability and promoting sustainable development is widely recognized. However, limited research has focused on the early warning of risks inherent in ESPs. In this study, the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GHKMGBA) is taken as the study area, and ecological security risk zones are delineated by combining the landscape ecological risk index and habitat quality, and a multi-level ESP is constructed based on the circuit theory. The PLUS model was employed to simulate future built-up land expansion under different scenarios, which were then extracted and overlaid with the multi-level ESP to enable the multi-scenario early warning of ESP risks. The results showed the following: The ESP in the central plains and coastal areas of the GHKMGBA exhibits a high level of ecological security risk, whereas the peripheral forested areas face less threat, which is crucial for regional ecological stability. The ESP, comprising ecological sources, corridors, and pinch points, is crucial for maintaining regional ecological flow stability, with tertiary corridors under significant stress and risk in all scenarios, requiring focused restoration and enhancement efforts. There are significant differences in risk early warning severity within the ESP across various development scenarios. Under the ecological protection scenario, the ESP will have the best early warning situation, effectively protecting ecological land and reducing ecological damage, providing a valuable reference for regional development policies. However, it must not overlook economic development and still needs to further seek a balance between economic growth and ecological protection.

Suggested Citation

  • Junjie Ma & Zhixiong Mei & Xinyu Wang & Sichen Li & Jiangsen Liang, 2024. "Ecological Security Pattern Construction and Multi-Scenario Risk Early Warning (2020–2035) in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:8:p:1267-:d:1454620
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/8/1267/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/8/1267/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ouyang, Xiao & Tang, Lisha & Wei, Xiao & Li, Yonghui, 2021. "Spatial interaction between urbanization and ecosystem services in Chinese urban agglomerations," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    2. Jinzhao Chen & Zhixiong Mei & Bin Wang & Junchao Wei, 2022. "Construction of Ecological Security Patterns Based on Circuit Theory under the Resistance Distance Principle," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-15, May.
    3. Shiru Wang & Qian Song & Jianyun Zhao & Zhibo Lu & Haoxiang Zhang, 2023. "Identification of Key Areas and Early-Warning Points for Ecological Protection and Restoration in the Yellow River Source Area Based on Ecological Security Pattern," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miroshnyk, N.V. & Likhanov, A.F. & Grabovska, T.O. & Teslenko, I.K. & Roubík, H., 2022. "Green infrastructure and relationship with urbanization – Importance and necessity of integrated governance," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    2. Zhijun Luo & Xiaofang Yang, 2024. "Interrelationships between Urbanization and Ecosystem Services in the Urban Agglomeration around Poyang Lake and Its Zoning Management at an Integrated Multi-Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-23, June.
    3. Weichen Zhang & Yuyang Fan & Bojie Wang, 2024. "Ecological Network Construction Based on Ecosystem Services and Landscape Pattern Indices in the Tabu River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Wang, Lin & Zhao, Junsan & Lin, Yilin & Chen, Guoping, 2024. "Exploring ecological carbon sequestration advantage and economic responses in an ecological security pattern: A nature-based solutions perspective," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 488(C).
    5. Yang Zhang & Nazhalati Naerkezi & Yun Zhang & Bo Wang, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Land Use/Cover Change and Its Impact on Carbon Storage Based on the Coupled GMOP-PLUS-InVEST Model in the Hexi Corridor, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-22, February.
    6. Li, Long & Huang, Xianjin & Yang, Hong, 2023. "Optimizing land use patterns to improve the contribution of land use planning to carbon neutrality target," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Wang, Jinsong & Gao, Dongdong & Shi, Wei & Du, Jiayan & Huang, Zhuo & Liu, Buyuan, 2023. "Spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem service value: Evidence from the economic development of urbanised regions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    8. Peng Cao & Xiao Ouyang & Jun Xu, 2022. "How Do Ecosystem Services Affect Poverty Reduction Efficiency? A Panel Data Analysis of State Poverty Counties in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-17, February.
    9. Weiyi Sun & Xianzhao Liu, 2024. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Ecosystem Carbon Storage in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration Based on the FLUS-InVEST Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-17, August.
    10. Wei Wei & Lei Xiao & Xiao Zhang & Luyao Jin & Di Wang & Xin Long & Qiaoqiao Yang & Jinxiang Li & Ying Zhou, 2025. "Spatial–Temporal Analysis of Coupling Coordination Between New Urbanization and Ecological Environment in Ya’an, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21, January.
    11. Chen, Wanxu & Chi, Guangqing, 2022. "Urbanization and ecosystem services: The multi-scale spatial spillover effects and spatial variations," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    12. Yan Wu & Yingmei Wu & Chen Li & Binpin Gao & Kejun Zheng & Mengjiao Wang & Yuhong Deng & Xin Fan, 2022. "Spatial Relationships and Impact Effects between Urbanization and Ecosystem Health in Urban Agglomerations along the Belt and Road: A Case Study of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-20, November.
    13. Zhongxu Wang & Shengbo Chen & Junqiang Xu & Chao Ren & Yafeng Yu & Zibo Wang & Lei Wang & Yucheng Xu, 2024. "Integrating Ecosystem Service Assessment, Human Activity Impacts, and Priority Conservation Area Delineation into Ecological Management Frameworks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-21, December.
    14. He Bai & Yuanyuan Chen & Shaohan Wang & Rui Chu & Jiyuan Fang & Huina Zhang & Shuhan Xing & Lei Wang & Dawei Xu, 2024. "Coupling Coordination Relationship and Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity between Urbanization and Ecosystem Services in the Songhua River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-30, June.
    15. Kun Wang & Xiao Ouyang & Qingyun He & Xiang Zhu, 2022. "Impact of Urban Land Expansion Efficiency on Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Three Major Urban Agglomerations along the Yangtze River Economic Belt," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, September.
    16. Shiliang Liu & Yingying Chen & Rongjie Yang & Di Li & Yuling Qiu & Kezhu Lu & Xinhao Cao & Qibing Chen, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Constructed Wetland Landscape Patterns during Rapid Urbanization in Chengdu, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, June.
    17. Lisha Tang & Hualou Long & Daniel P. Aldrich, 2023. "Putting a Price on Nature: Ecosystem Service Value and Ecological Risk in the Dongting Lake Area, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-15, March.
    18. Shuai Wang & Cunyi Yang & Zhenghui Li, 2021. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Spatial Interaction Spillover Effects of New-Urbanization and Green Land Utilization Efficiency," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-26, October.
    19. Fanchao Kong & Kaixiao Zhang & Hengshu Fu & Lina Cui & Yang Li & Tengteng Wang, 2023. "Temporal–Spatial Variations and Convergence Analysis of Land Use Eco-Efficiency in the Urban Agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-20, August.
    20. Yaozu Qin & Li Cao & Wenjing Li & Ali Darvishi Boloorani & Yuan Li & Xinxin Ke & Masoud Soleimani & Qian Yu & Cuimin Zhou, 2023. "Suitability Assessment Method of Red Tourism Development Using Geospatial and Social Humanity Data: A Case Study of Ruijin City, East China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-18, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:8:p:1267-:d:1454620. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.