Land Use Optimization Embedding in Ecological Suitability in the Embryonic Urban Agglomeration

Healthy and sustainable urban agglomerations development relies heavily on land use optimization. However, there is insufficient scientific basis and reliable quantitative analysis for land use pattern identification and optimal prediction in embryonic urban agglomeration. Therefore, taking the Lanzhou–Xining (LX) region, a typical primary developing urban agglomeration, as the study area, we first assessed the land ecological suitability (LES). Then, we embedded the LES evaluation results in the land optimization process and constructed the MCR-MOP- Dyna-CLUE model framework, simulating and optimizing land use patterns for the year 2035 under ecological optimization and business as usual scenarios, which aimed to explore a sustainable land use pattern for embryonic urban agglomerations. The results indicated that the ecological optimization scenario based on LES had a more rational land use pattern. It appropriately controlled the expansion rate of construction land and effectively alleviated the problems of construction land encroaching on farming land and ecological land. Meanwhile, the ecosystem services increased in value based on adequately addressing the need for food security and economic development. Compared to the business as usual scenario, the construction land under the ecological optimization scenario was 19,622.69 ha less, and the cultivated land was 32,103.29 ha more. Moreover, the ecological benefit and the economic benefit increased by 187,490.4595 million yuan and 151,808,605.1 million yuan from 2020 to 2035, respectively, under the ecological optimization scenario. Our research is of great value for making decisions on sustainable land use and land resource management in initial developing agglomerations.