IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v13y2024i3p393-d1360300.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Characteristics Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Evolution in the Source Region of the Yangtze River and Yellow River Based on Improved FLUS Model

Author

Listed:
  • Haoyue Gao

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
    Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Wisdom Water Conservancy, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China)

  • Tianling Qin

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China)

  • Qinghua Luan

    (Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Wisdom Water Conservancy, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China
    State Key Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Jianming Feng

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China)

  • Xiuyan Zhang

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China)

  • Yuhui Yang

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China)

  • Shu Xu

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China)

  • Jie Lu

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China)

Abstract

Climate change profoundly alters land use in alpine regions, and delving into the evolutionary characteristics of these changes is crucial for the sustainable development of regional land resources and the gradual enhancement of the ecological environment. Taking the source region of the Yangtze and Yellow River (SRYAYE) as a case study, we integrate permafrost and snowfall data into the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS). Analyzing historical land use, we predict and simulate the land use scenarios for 2030, 2035, and 2060 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climates, and conduct a detailed analysis of the scale, composition, and pattern of land use in this area. Scale. The results showed that ① the Kappa coefficient of the improved FLUS model was higher than 0.927, and that the overall accuracy of the simulation was increased by 2.64%; ② the area of forest land and the high-coverage grassland will increase in the future and the center of gravity will migrate to the west, and that the area of moderate and low-coverage grassland will slightly decrease but tend to become green to the west; and ③ the fragmentation degree of the SRYAYE is decreasing, and the influence of human activities on the landscape pattern is weaker than in the past.

Suggested Citation

  • Haoyue Gao & Tianling Qin & Qinghua Luan & Jianming Feng & Xiuyan Zhang & Yuhui Yang & Shu Xu & Jie Lu, 2024. "Characteristics Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Evolution in the Source Region of the Yangtze River and Yellow River Based on Improved FLUS Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-21, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:3:p:393-:d:1360300
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/3/393/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/3/393/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sai Hu & Longqian Chen & Long Li & Ting Zhang & Lina Yuan & Liang Cheng & Jia Wang & Mingxin Wen, 2020. "Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics under Ecological Constraints in Anhui Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Zhouling Shao & Chunyan Chen & Yuanli Liu & Jie Cao & Guitang Liao & Zhengyu Lin, 2023. "Impact of Land Use Change on Carbon Storage Based on FLUS-InVEST Model: A Case Study of Chengdu–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-17, August.
    3. Jin, Hong & Li, Heping & Lee, Jia & Sun, Weitong, 2023. "Simulation analysis of rural land use using rate of change driven by population and economic dynamics - A case study of Huangguashan village in Chongqing, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 475(C).
    4. Jiahui Li & Xinliang Xu, 2023. "Glacier Change and Its Response to Climate Change in Western China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chunlei Ma & Wenjuan Wang & Xiaojie Li & Jianhua Ren, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Optimal Landscape Pattern Configuration in Saline Soil Areas of Western Jilin Province, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yue Wang & Dengjiao Liao & Bin Yan & Xinhai Lu, 2023. "Employment of Land-Expropriated Farmers: The Effects of Land Expropriation and Gender Difference," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Yang Yi & Chen Zhang & Jinqi Zhu & Yugang Zhang & Hao Sun & Hongzhang Kang, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution, Prediction and Optimization of LUCC Based on CA-Markov and InVEST Models: A Case Study of Mentougou District, Beijing," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-23, February.
    3. Yusuyunjiang Mamitimin & Zibibula Simayi & Ayinuer Mamat & Bumairiyemu Maimaiti & Yunfei Ma, 2023. "FLUS Based Modeling of the Urban LULC in Arid and Semi-Arid Region of Northwest China: A Case Study of Urumqi City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, March.
    4. Xuanmiao Peng & Xiaoai Dai & Ryan Shi & Yujian Zheng & Xinyue Liu & Yuhe Xiao & Weile Li & Yang Zhang & Jue Wang & Huan Huang, 2024. "Investigating the Effects of Mining on Ecosystem Services in Panzhihua City: A Multi-Scenario Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-25, June.
    5. Hong Shi & Ji Yang & Qijuan Liu & Taohong Li & Ning Chris Chen, 2024. "Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Change on Fraction Vegetation Coverage Based on PLUS-Dimidiate Pixel Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-18, November.
    6. Yi Wang & Jun Wang & Beibei Hao & Siyi Zhang & Junwei Ding & Bin He, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Future Land Use in the Beijiang River Basin Under Multidimensional Ecological Constraints," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-24, December.
    7. Yuhao Jin & Yuanhang Li & Weiping Shen & Hengkang Zhu, 2024. "Study on the Interaction Effects of Landscape Pattern on the Synergistic Trade-Offs of Ecosystem Services Based on Multi-Model Fusion: A Case Study of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-31, November.
    8. Qinqin Zhang & Zihui Zhang & Xiaofei Wang & Zhonglin Xu & Yao Wang, 2024. "Monitoring of Glacier Area Changes in the Ili River Basin during 1992–2020 Based on Google Earth Engine," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, September.
    9. Maoqiu Xiong & Fujie Li & Xiaohuang Liu & Jiufen Liu & Xinping Luo & Liyuan Xing & Ran Wang & Hongyu Li & Fuyin Guo, 2023. "Characterization of Ecosystem Services and Their Trade-Off and Synergistic Relationships under Different Land-Use Scenarios on the Loess Plateau," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-18, November.
    10. Wenting Huang & Long Guo & Ting Zhang & Ting Chen & Longqian Chen & Long Li & Xundi Zhang, 2024. "The Impact of Territorial Spatial Transformation on Carbon Storage: A Case Study of Suqian, East China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, March.
    11. Jing Shi & Peiji Shi & Ziyang Wang & Lirong Wang & Yali Li, 2023. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in Arid Areas Based on PLUS Model: A Case Study of Jiuquan City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, April.
    12. Xiufeng Cao & Zhaoshun Liu & Shujie Li & Zhenjun Gao, 2022. "Integrating the Ecological Security Pattern and the PLUS Model to Assess the Effects of Regional Ecological Restoration: A Case Study of Hefei City, Anhui Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-19, May.
    13. Jie Chen & Ruijie Shi & Geng Sun & Ya Guo & Min Deng & Xiuyuan Zhang, 2023. "Simulation-Based Optimization of the Urban Thermal Environment through Local Climate Zones Reorganization in Changsha City, China with the FLUS Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-28, August.
    14. Ting Zhang & Longqian Chen & Ziqi Yu & Jinyu Zang & Long Li, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Carbon Emissions from Industrial Land in Anhui Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, November.
    15. Xingwang Hu & Weihua Liao & Yifang Wei & Zhiyan Wei & Shengxia Huang, 2024. "Analysis of Land Use Change and Its Economic and Ecological Value under the Optimal Scenario and Green Development Advancement Policy: A Case Study of Hechi, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-20, June.
    16. Men, Dan & Pan, Jinghu, 2023. "Ecological network identification and connectivity robustness evaluation in the Yellow River Basin under a multi-scenario simulation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 482(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:3:p:393-:d:1360300. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.