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Simulating Spatiotemporal Changes in Land Use and Land Cover of the North-Western Himalayan Region Using Markov Chain Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Owais Bashir

    (Division of Soil Science, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Shalimar 190025, India)

  • Shabir Ahmad Bangroo

    (Division of Soil Science, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Shalimar 190025, India
    School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada)

  • Wei Guo

    (Farmland Irrigation Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Xinxiang 453003, China)

  • Gowhar Meraj

    (Department of Ecology, Environment and Remote Sensing, Government of Jammu and Kashmir, Srinagar 190018, India)

  • Gebiaw T. Ayele

    (Australian Rivers Institute and School of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, Nathan 4111, Australia)

  • Nasir Bashir Naikoo

    (Division of Soil Science, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Shalimar 190025, India)

  • Shahid Shafai

    (Centre for Space Science and Technology Education in Asia and the Pacific, Dehradun 248001, India)

  • Perminder Singh

    (Division of Soil Science, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Shalimar 190025, India)

  • Mohammad Muslim

    (Department of Environmental Science, University of Kashmir Hazratbal Srinagar, Srinagar 190006, India)

  • Habitamu Taddese

    (Wondo Genet College of Forestry and Natural Resources, Hawassa University, Shashemene P.O. Box 128, Ethiopia)

  • Irfan Gani

    (Division of floriculture, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Srinagar 190025, India)

  • Shafeeq Ur Rahman

    (School of Environment and Civil Engineering, Dongguan University of Technology, Dongguan 523808, China
    MOE Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)

Abstract

Spatial variabilities and drivers of land use and land cover (LULC) change over time and are crucial for determining the region’s economic viability and ecological functionality. The North-Western Himalayan (NWH) regions have witnessed drastic changes in LULC over the last 50 years, as a result of which their ecological diversity has been under significant threat. There is a need to understand how LULC change has taken place so that appropriate conservation measures can be taken well in advance to understand the implications of the current trends of changing LULC. This study has been carried out in the Baramulla district of the North-Western Himalayas to assess its current and future LULC changes and determine the drivers responsible for future policy decisions. Using Landsat 2000, 2010, and 2020 satellite imagery, we performed LULC classification of the study area using the maximum likelihood supervised classification. The land-use transition matrix, Markov chain model, and CA-Markov model were used to determine the spatial patterns and temporal variation of LULC for 2030. The CA-Markov model was first used to predict the land cover for 2020, which was then verified by the actual land cover of 2020 (Kappa coefficient of 0.81) for the model’s validation. After calibration and validation of the model, LULC was predicted for the year 2030. Between the years 2000 and 2020, it was found that horticulture, urbanization, and built-up areas increased, while snow cover, forest cover, agricultural land, and water bodies all decreased. The significant drivers of LULC changes were economic compulsions, climate variability, and increased human population. The analysis finding of the study highlighted that technical, financial, policy, or legislative initiatives are required to restore fragile NWH regions experiencing comparable consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Owais Bashir & Shabir Ahmad Bangroo & Wei Guo & Gowhar Meraj & Gebiaw T. Ayele & Nasir Bashir Naikoo & Shahid Shafai & Perminder Singh & Mohammad Muslim & Habitamu Taddese & Irfan Gani & Shafeeq Ur Ra, 2022. "Simulating Spatiotemporal Changes in Land Use and Land Cover of the North-Western Himalayan Region Using Markov Chain Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:12:p:2276-:d:1001625
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Yun Jiang & Guoming Du & Hao Teng & Jun Wang & Haolin Li, 2023. "Multi-Scenario Land Use Change Simulation and Spatial Response of Ecosystem Service Value in Black Soil Region of Northeast China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, April.

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