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Preliminary Forecasting of Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides in the Wildfire Burned Areas of Western Greece

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  • Spyridon Lainas

    (Department of Geology, Laboratory of Engineering Geology, University of Patras, 265 04 Patras, Greece)

  • Nikolaos Depountis

    (Department of Geology, Laboratory of Engineering Geology, University of Patras, 265 04 Patras, Greece)

  • Nikolaos Sabatakakis

    (Department of Geology, Laboratory of Engineering Geology, University of Patras, 265 04 Patras, Greece)

Abstract

A new methodology for shallow landslide forecasting in wildfire burned areas is proposed by estimating the annual probability of rainfall threshold exceedance. For this purpose, extensive geological fieldwork was carried out in 122 landslides, which have been periodically activated in Western Greece, after the devastating wildfires that occurred in August 2007 and burned large areas in several parts of Western Greece. In addition, daily rainfall data covering more than 40 years has been collected and statistically processed to estimate the exceedance probability of the rainfall threshold above which these landslides are activated. The objectives of this study are to quantify the magnitude and duration of rainfall above which landslides in burned areas are activated, as well as to introduce a novel methodology on rainfall-induced landslide forecasting. It has been concluded that rainfall-induced landslide annual exceedance probability in the burned areas is higher when cumulative rainfall duration ranges from 6 to 9 days with local differences due to the prevailing geological conditions and landscape characteristics. The proposed methodology can be used as a basis for landslide forecasting in wildfire-affected areas, especially when triggered by rainfall, and can be further developed as a tool for preliminary landslide hazard assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Spyridon Lainas & Nikolaos Depountis & Nikolaos Sabatakakis, 2021. "Preliminary Forecasting of Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides in the Wildfire Burned Areas of Western Greece," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:8:p:877-:d:618710
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gian Battista Bischetti & Mario Di Fi Dio & Florin Florineth, 2014. "On the Origin of Soil Bioengineering," Landscape Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 583-595, October.
    2. N. Sabatakakis & G. Koukis & E. Vassiliades & S. Lainas, 2013. "Landslide susceptibility zonation in Greece," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(1), pages 523-543, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Michalopoulou & Nikolaos Depountis & Konstantinos Nikolakopoulos & Vasileios Boumpoulis, 2022. "The Significance of Digital Elevation Models in the Calculation of LS Factor and Soil Erosion," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-36, September.
    2. Sofia Anagnostopoulou & Nikolaos Depountis & Nikolaos Sabatakakis & Panagiotis Pelekis, 2022. "Large Shear Strength Parameters for Landslide Analyses on Highly Weathered Flysch," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, August.

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