IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v16y2023i4p250-d1128413.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Measure between Exchange Rate and Oil Price during Crises: Evidence from Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Mouna Ben Saad Zorgati

    (Institute of High Commercial Studies (IHEC) of Sousse, LaREMFiQ, B.P. 40, Sousse 4054, Tunisia
    IPAG LAB, IPAG Business School, 184 Boulevard Saint-Germain, 75006 Paris, France)

Abstract

This study investigates the risk spillover effect between the exchange rate of importing and exporting oil countries and the oil price. The analysis is supported by the utilization of a set of double-long memories. Thereafter, a multivariate GARCH type model is adopted to analyze the dynamic conditional correlations. Moreover, the Gumbel copula is employed to define the nonlinear structure of dependence and to evaluate the optimal portfolio. The conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) is adopted as a risk measure. Findings indicate a long-run dependence and asymmetry of bidirectional risk spillover among oil price and exchange rate and confirm that the risk spillover intensity is different between the former and the latter. They show that the oil price has a stronger spillover effect in the case of oil exporting countries and the lowest spillover effect in the case of oil importing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mouna Ben Saad Zorgati, 2023. "Risk Measure between Exchange Rate and Oil Price during Crises: Evidence from Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:4:p:250-:d:1128413
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/4/250/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/4/250/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahmad, A.H. & Moran Hernandez, Ricardo, 2013. "Asymmetric adjustment between oil prices and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from major oil producers and consumers," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 306-317.
    2. Roubaud, David & Arouri, Mohamed, 2018. "Oil prices, exchange rates and stock markets under uncertainty and regime-switching," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 28-33.
    3. Liang Wang & Tingjia Xu, 2022. "Bidirectional Risk Spillovers between Exchange Rate of Emerging Market Countries and International Crude Oil Price–Based on Time-varing Copula-CoVaR," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 383-414, January.
    4. Wang, Shuang & Jia, Haiying & Lu, Jing & Yang, Dong, 2023. "Crude oil transportation route choices: A connectivity reliability-based approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    5. Bhaskar Bagchi & Biswajit Paul, 2023. "Effects of Crude Oil Price Shocks on Stock Markets and Currency Exchange Rates in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Evidence from G7 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    6. Bin Mo & Juan Meng & Guannan Wang, 2023. "Risk Dependence and Risk Spillovers Effect from Crude Oil on the Chinese Stock Market and Gold Market: Implications on Portfolio Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-17, February.
    7. Wei Qiang & Aimei Lin & Chao Zhao & Zhenhua Liu & Manzhi Liu & Xiaozhen Wang, 2019. "The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of petroleum-importing countries: a summary of recent studies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(1), pages 227-239, January.
    8. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the dynamic relationship between oil prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 397-414.
    9. Martin Wafula Nandelenga & Anthony Simpasa, 2020. "Working Paper 334 - Oil Price and Exchange Rate Dependence in Selected Countries," Working Paper Series 2460, African Development Bank.
    10. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hlongwane, Nyiko Worship, 2022. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates in South Africa," MPRA Paper 113209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Uzoma-Nwosu, Damian Chidozie & David-Wayas, Maria Onyinye, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 on the interrelationship among oil prices, stock prices and exchange rates in selected oil exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Yin, Libo & Ma, Xiyuan, 2018. "Causality between oil shocks and exchange rate: A Bayesian, graph-based VAR approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 434-453.
    4. Bing‐Yue Liu & Qiang Ji & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ying Fan, 2021. "Dynamic dependence and extreme risk comovement: The case of oil prices and exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2612-2636, April.
    5. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2017. "Does the crude oil price influence the exchange rates of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries differently? A wavelet coherence analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 536-547.
    6. Khalid M. Kisswani & Arezou Harraf & Amjad M. Kisswani, 2019. "Revisiting the effects of oil prices on exchange rate: asymmetric evidence from the ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 279-300, August.
    7. Alam, Md. Samsul & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Ferrer, Román, 2019. "Causal flows between oil and forex markets using high-frequency data: Asymmetries from good and bad volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Taufeeque Ahmad Siddiqui & Haseen Ahmed & Mohammad Naushad & Uzma Khan, 2023. "The Relationship between Oil Prices and Exchange Rate: A Systematic Literature Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 566-578, May.
    9. Mustafa Kocoglu & Phouphet Kyophilavong & Ashar Awan & So Young Lim, 2023. "Time-varying causality between oil price and exchange rate in five ASEAN economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1007-1031, April.
    10. Chowdhury, Kushal Banik & Garg, Bhavesh, 2022. "Has COVID-19 intensified the oil price–exchange rate nexus?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 280-298.
    11. Mollick, André Varella & Sakaki, Hamid, 2019. "Exchange rates, oil prices and world stock returns," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 585-602.
    12. Jin Shang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2023. "Differential Tail Dependence between Crude Oil and Forex Markets in Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries during Recent Crisis Periods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-24, October.
    13. Kazeem O. Isah & Abdulkader C. Mahomedy & Elias A. Udeaja & Ojo J. Adelakun & Yusuf Yakubu & Danmecca Musa, 2022. "Revisiting the accuracy of inflation forecasts in Nigeria: The oil price–exchange rate–asymmetry perspectives," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 329-348, September.
    14. Zhu, Huiming & Li, Shuang & Huang, Zishan, 2023. "Frequency domain quantile dependence and connectedness between crude oil and exchange rates: Evidence from oil-importing and exporting countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-30.
    15. Liang Wang & Tingjia Xu, 2022. "Bidirectional Risk Spillovers between Exchange Rate of Emerging Market Countries and International Crude Oil Price–Based on Time-varing Copula-CoVaR," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 383-414, January.
    16. Changyu Liu & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Saqib Farid & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Oil as Hedge, Safe-Haven, and Diversifier for Conventional Currencies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
    17. Lavička, Hynek & Kracík, Jiří, 2020. "Fluctuation analysis of electric power loads in Europe: Correlation multifractality vs. Distribution function multifractality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    18. Koop, Gary & Ley, Eduardo & Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F. J., 1997. "Bayesian analysis of long memory and persistence using ARFIMA models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 149-169.
    19. Rob Hyndman & Heather Booth & Farah Yasmeen, 2013. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product-Ratio Method With Functional Time Series Models," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 261-283, February.
    20. Ngene, Geoffrey & Tah, Kenneth A. & Darrat, Ali F., 2017. "Long memory or structural breaks: Some evidence for African stock markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 61-73.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:4:p:250-:d:1128413. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.