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Measuring Sovereign Risk in Turkey: An Application of the Contingent Claims Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Christian Keller
  • Mr. Peter J Kunzel
  • Mr. Marcos R Souto

Abstract

Improved macroeconomic conditions and changes to the asset-liability structure on Turkish balance sheets since the 2001 crisis have improved Turkey's overall sovereign risk profile. Nonetheless, the country remains subject to bouts of volatility, as evidenced most recently in the May/June 2006 market turbulence. This paper examines these changes in Turkey's risk profile using the Contingent Claims Approach (CCA), to quantify the evolution of Turkey's sovereign risk, relate risk indicators to market prices of risk, and conduct scenario analyses to assess the effects of potential market volatility and policy adjustments on key risk indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Christian Keller & Mr. Peter J Kunzel & Mr. Marcos R Souto, 2007. "Measuring Sovereign Risk in Turkey: An Application of the Contingent Claims Approach," IMF Working Papers 2007/233, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/233
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    Cited by:

    1. Nuno Silva, 2010. "Inter-Sector Relations in the Portuguese Economy: an Application of Contingent," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Carmelo Salleo & Alberto Grassi & Constantinos Kyriakopoulos, 2020. "A Comprehensive Approach for Calculating Banking Sector Risks," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-21, November.
    3. Vojtěch Siuda & Milan Szabo, 2021. "Measuring Sovereign Credit Risk of the EU countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(3), pages 169-192.
    4. Mr. Martin Cihak & Ms. Petya Koeva Brooks, 2009. "From Subprime Loans to Subprime Growth? Evidence for the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2009/069, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Lai, Wan-Ni, 2016. "Evaluating the sovereign and household credit risk in Singapore: A contingent claims approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 435-447.
    6. repec:ptu:bdpart:a201004 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:cnb:ocpubc:fsr1112/3 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2013. "Measuring financial stress in transition economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 597-611.
    9. Arslanalp, Serkan & Liao, Yin, 2014. "Banking sector contingent liabilities and sovereign risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 316-330.
    10. Kalteier, Eva-Maria & Posch, Peter N., 2013. "Sovereign asset values and implications for the credit market," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 53-60.
    11. Ibrahim Ethem Guney & Doruk Kucuksarac & Yigit Onay, 2020. "Modelling Sovereign Credit Risk: Binomial Approach," CBT Research Notes in Economics 2009, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    12. Mr. Dale F Gray & Ms. Elena Loukoianova & Samuel W. Malone & Cheng Hoon Lim, 2008. "A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework: Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2008/040, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Serkan Arslanalp & Yin Liao, 2013. "Contingent Liabilities and Sovereign Risk: Evidence from Banking Sectors," CAMA Working Papers 2013-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Cevik, Emrah I. & Dibooglu, Sel & Kenc, Turalay, 2016. "Financial stress and economic activity in some emerging Asian economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 127-139.
    15. Burcu Aydin & Mr. Myeongsuk Kim & Mr. Ho-Seong Moon, 2011. "Financial Linkages Across Korean Banks," IMF Working Papers 2011/201, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Firano, Zakaria & Filali adib, Fatine, 2019. "Intersectorial contagion risk in Morocco," MPRA Paper 95343, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    WP; debt; balance sheet; value; asset;
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