IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijfss/v8y2020i1p14-d329849.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Portfolio Choice for a Resource-Based Sovereign Wealth Fund: An Analysis of Cash Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Knut Anton Mork

    (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Klæbuveien 72, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway)

  • Hanna Marisela Eap

    (Ernst & Young AS, Dronning Eufemias gate 6, N-0191 Oslo, Norway)

  • Magnus Eskedal Haraldsen

    (Danske Bank, Bryggetorget 4, N-0250 Oslo, Norway)

Abstract

We consider the portfolio choice of a government with a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) when government revenues depend on exhaustible resources, such as oil and gas. The question is whether the SWF portfolio should underweight shares in the resource industry. Some studies have found that these share prices correlate more closely with the overall stock market than the resource price, which would seem to weaken the case for underweighting. However, equity price movements depend not only on changes in expectations of future cash flows, but also on time variation in discount factors. We analyze cash flows directly, rather than trying to disentangle these effects. We have collected cash-flow data for the companies in all of the major industries of the FTSE Global All Cap index, the basis for the strategic index of the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global. Subsequently, we look at the correlations between each industry’s cash flow and the Norwegian government’s cash flow from oil and gas. We find a close, statistically significant, and persistent correlation for the oil and gas industry. The correlations for other industries are small and mostly insignificant. We believe that our findings can be used to support proposals for SWFs in countries with significant petroleum revenues to underweight shares in this industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Knut Anton Mork & Hanna Marisela Eap & Magnus Eskedal Haraldsen, 2020. "Portfolio Choice for a Resource-Based Sovereign Wealth Fund: An Analysis of Cash Flows," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:8:y:2020:i:1:p:14-:d:329849
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/8/1/14/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/8/1/14/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio Choice over the Life‐Cycle when the Stock and Labor Markets Are Cointegrated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2123-2167, October.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7874 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2009. "The Price Is (Almost) Right," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2739-2782, December.
    4. van den Bremer, Ton & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Wills, Samuel, 2016. "The Elephant In The Ground: Managing Oil And Sovereign Wealth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 113-131.
    5. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2010. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 305-344, January.
    7. Bodie, Zvi & Merton, Robert C. & Samuelson, William F., 1992. "Labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice in a life cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 427-449.
    8. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    9. John H. Cochrane, 2014. "A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 1-49, February.
    10. Pettit, R. Richardson & Westerfield, Randolph, 1972. "A Model of Capital Asset Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 1649-1668, March.
    11. Luis M. Viceira, 2001. "Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long‐Horizon Investors with Nontradable Labor Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 433-470, April.
    12. John Lintner, 1965. "Security Prices, Risk, And Maximal Gains From Diversification," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 587-615, December.
    13. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    14. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 2000. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Background Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 1-26, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    2. Atif Ellahie, 2021. "Earnings beta," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-122, March.
    3. Robert Östling & Erik Lindqvist & David Cesarini & Joseph Briggs, 2016. "Wealth, Portfolio Allocations, and Risk Preference," 2016 Meeting Papers 1089, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    5. Xiaohong Chen & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2009. "Land of addicts? an empirical investigation of habit-based asset pricing models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1057-1093.
    6. Lin, Wen-chang & Lu, Jin-ray, 2012. "Risky asset allocation and consumption rule in the presence of background risk and insurance markets," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 150-158.
    7. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2007. "Why Is Long‐Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 55-92, February.
    8. Roh, Tai-Yong & Lee, Changjun & Min, Byoung-Kyu, 2019. "Consumption growth predictability and asset prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 95-118.
    9. Botshekan, Mahmoud & Kraeussl, Roman & Lucas, Andre, 2012. "Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What Is Actually Priced?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(6), pages 1279-1301, December.
    10. Moutanabbir, Khouzeima & Noureldin, Diaa, 2020. "Optimal asset allocation and consumption rules for commodity-based sovereign wealth funds," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 708-730.
    11. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December.
    12. Michaelides, Alexander & Zhang, Yuxin, 2022. "Life-cycle portfolio choice with imperfect predictors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    13. Nitschka, Thomas, 2006. "Does sensitivity to cashflow news explain the value premium on European stock markets?," Technical Reports 2006,12, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    14. Munk, Claus, 2020. "A mean-variance benchmark for household portfolios over the life cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    15. Kent Wang & Jiawei Li & Shicheng Huang, 2013. "Bad beta good beta, state-space news decomposition and the cross-section of stock returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(2), pages 587-607, June.
    16. Maio, Paulo, 2013. "Return decomposition and the Intertemporal CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4958-4972.
    17. Julliard, Christian, 2007. "Labor income risk and asset returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4811, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Olga Klinkowska, 2009. "Conditional Tests of Factor Augmented Asset Pricing Models with Human Capital and Housing: Some New Results," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 24.
    19. Knut Anton Mork & Hanna Marisela Eap & Magnus Eskedal Haraldsen, 2019. "Portfolio Choice for a Resource-based Sovereign Wealth Fund: An analysis of Cash Flows," Working Paper Series 17919, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    20. Verma, Rahul & Verma, Priti, 2008. "Are survey forecasts of individual and institutional investor sentiments rational?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1139-1155, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:8:y:2020:i:1:p:14-:d:329849. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.