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Life-cycle portfolio choice with imperfect predictors

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  • Michaelides, Alexander
  • Zhang, Yuxin

Abstract

We study quantitatively how uncertainty in expected stock return predictability affects life-cycle portfolio choice and wealth accumulation in the presence of undiversifiable labor income risk. Households filter information about future expected returns from observed predictors and realized stock returns. Therefore, optimal portfolio choice does not only depend on financial wealth and age, as in more traditional life-cycle models. Counterfactuals demonstrate the magnitude of portfolio demand changes that depend on perceptions about underlying expected returns. On average, life-cycle asset allocation becomes more conservative than models with either i.i.d. stock returns, or with clearer signals about expected stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaelides, Alexander & Zhang, Yuxin, 2022. "Life-cycle portfolio choice with imperfect predictors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:135:y:2022:i:c:s0378426621003083
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106357
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portfolio choice over the life cycle; Filtering; Stock market predictability; Imperfect predictors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G5 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance

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