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Impact of Short-Term Exposure to Extreme Temperatures on Mortality: A Multi-City Study in Belgium

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  • Claire Demoury

    (Risk and Health Impact Assessment, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Raf Aerts

    (Risk and Health Impact Assessment, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
    Division Ecology, Evolution and Biodiversity Conservation, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), 3001 Leuven, Belgium
    Center for Environmental Sciences, University of Hasselt, 3590 Hasselt, Belgium)

  • Bram Vandeninden

    (Risk and Health Impact Assessment, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Bert Van Schaeybroeck

    (Department of Meteorological Research and Development, Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, 1180 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Eva M. De Clercq

    (Risk and Health Impact Assessment, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium)

Abstract

In light of climate change, health risks are expected to be exacerbated by more frequent high temperatures and reduced by less frequent cold extremes. To assess the impact of different climate change scenarios, it is necessary to describe the current effects of temperature on health. A time-stratified case-crossover design fitted with conditional quasi-Poisson regressions and distributed lag non-linear models was applied to estimate specific temperature-mortality associations in nine urban agglomerations in Belgium, and a random-effect meta-analysis was conducted to pool the estimates. Based on 307,859 all-cause natural deaths, the mortality risk associated to low temperature was 1.32 (95% CI: 1.21–1.44) and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.08–1.36) for high temperature relative to the minimum mortality temperature (23.1 °C). Both cold and heat were associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. We observed differences in risk by age category, and women were more vulnerable to heat than men. People living in the most built-up municipalities were at higher risk for heat. Air pollutants did not have a confounding effect. Evidence from this study helps to identify specific populations at risk and is important for current and future public health interventions and prevention strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Claire Demoury & Raf Aerts & Bram Vandeninden & Bert Van Schaeybroeck & Eva M. De Clercq, 2022. "Impact of Short-Term Exposure to Extreme Temperatures on Mortality: A Multi-City Study in Belgium," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-13, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:7:p:3763-:d:776731
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Whitman, S. & Good, G. & Donoghue, E.R. & Benbow, N. & Shou, W. & Mou, S., 1997. "Mortality in Chicago attributed to the July 1995 heat wave," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(9), pages 1515-1518.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kai Liu & Ziyi Ni & Mei Ren & Xiaoqing Zhang, 2022. "Spatial Differences and Influential Factors of Urban Carbon Emissions in China under the Target of Carbon Neutrality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-14, May.
    2. Liang Chen & Mingxiang Yang & Xuan Liu & Xing Lu, 2022. "Attribution and Sensitivity Analysis of Runoff Variation in the Yellow River Basin under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-21, November.
    3. Miguel Ángel Navas-Martín & José Antonio López-Bueno & María Soledad Ascaso-Sánchez & Fernando Follos & José Manuel Vellón & Isidro Juan Mirón & María Yolanda Luna & Gerardo Sánchez-Martínez & Julio D, 2023. "Territory Differences in Adaptation to Heat among Persons Aged 65 Years and Over in Spain (1983–2018)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-12, February.

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