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PM 2.5 Concentrations Variability in North China Explored with a Multi-Scale Spatial Random Effect Model

Author

Listed:
  • Hang Zhang

    (Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China)

  • Yong Liu

    (Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China
    Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization Jointly Built by Henan Province and Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China)

  • Dongyang Yang

    (Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China
    Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization Jointly Built by Henan Province and Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China)

  • Guanpeng Dong

    (Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China
    Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization Jointly Built by Henan Province and Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China
    Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Kaifeng 475001, China)

Abstract

Compiling fine-resolution geospatial PM 2.5 concentrations data is essential for precisely assessing the health risks of PM 2.5 pollution exposure as well as for evaluating environmental policy effectiveness. In most previous studies, global and local spatial heterogeneity of PM 2.5 is captured by the inclusion of multi-scale covariate effects, while the modelling of genuine scale-dependent variabilities pertaining to the spatial random process of PM 2.5 has not yet been much studied. Consequently, this work proposed a multi-scale spatial random effect model (MSSREM), based a recently developed fixed-rank Kriging method, to capture both the scale-dependent variabilities and the spatial dependence effect simultaneously. Furthermore, a small-scale Monte Carlo simulation experiment was conducted to assess the performance of MSSREM against classic geospatial Kriging models. The key results indicated that when the multiple-scale property of local spatial variabilities were exhibited, the MSSREM had greater ability to recover local- or fine-scale variations hidden in a real spatial process. The methodology was applied to the PM 2.5 concentrations modelling in North China, a region with the worst air quality in the country. The MSSREM provided high prediction accuracy, 0.917 R-squared, and 3.777 root mean square error (RMSE). In addition, the spatial correlations in PM 2.5 concentrations were properly captured by the model as indicated by a statistically insignificant Moran’s I statistic (a value of 0.136 with p -value > 0.2). Overall, this study offers another spatial statistical model for investigating and predicting PM 2.5 concentration, which would be beneficial for precise health risk assessment of PM 2.5 pollution exposure.

Suggested Citation

  • Hang Zhang & Yong Liu & Dongyang Yang & Guanpeng Dong, 2022. "PM 2.5 Concentrations Variability in North China Explored with a Multi-Scale Spatial Random Effect Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-14, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:17:p:10811-:d:902003
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Huiping Wang & Qi Ge, 2022. "Analysis of the Spatial Association Network of PM 2.5 and Its Influencing Factors in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-15, October.

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