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Tempo-Spatial Modelling of the Spread of COVID-19 in Urban Spaces

Author

Listed:
  • Federico Benjamín Galacho-Jiménez

    (Geographic Analysis Group, Department of Geography, University of Malaga, 29071 Malaga, Spain)

  • David Carruana-Herrera

    (Department of Geography, University of Malaga, 29071 Malaga, Spain)

  • Julián Molina

    (Department of Applied Economics (Mathematics), University of Malaga, 29071 Malaga, Spain)

  • José Damián Ruiz-Sinoga

    (Physical Geography and Territory Group, Department of Geography, University of Malaga, 29071 Malaga, Spain)

Abstract

The relationship between the social structure of urban spaces and the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic is becoming increasingly evident. Analyzing the socio-spatial structure in relation to cases may be one of the keys to explaining the ways in which this contagious disease and its variants spread. The aim of this study is to propose a set of variables selected from the social context and the spatial structure and to evaluate the temporal spread of infections and their different degrees of intensity according to social areas. We define a model to represent the relationship between the socio-spatial structure of the urban space and the spatial distribution of pandemic cases. We draw on the theory of social area analysis and apply multivariate analysis techniques to check the results in the urban space of the city of Malaga (Spain). The proposed model should be considered capable of explaining the functioning of the relationships between societal structure, socio-spatial segregation, and the spread of the pandemic. In this paper, the study of the origins and consequences of COVID-19 from different scientific perspectives is considered a necessary approach to understanding this phenomenon. The personal and social consequences of the pandemic have been exceptional and have changed many aspects of social life in urban spaces, where it has also had a greater impact. We propose a geostatistical analysis model that can explain the functioning of the relationships between societal structure, socio-spatial segregation, and the temporal evolution of the pandemic. Rather than an aprioristic theory, this paper is a study by the authors to interpret the disparity in the spread of the pandemic as shown by the infection data.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Benjamín Galacho-Jiménez & David Carruana-Herrera & Julián Molina & José Damián Ruiz-Sinoga, 2022. "Tempo-Spatial Modelling of the Spread of COVID-19 in Urban Spaces," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-17, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:15:p:9764-:d:883131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xinyu Zhuang & Li Zhang & Jie Lu, 2022. "Past—Present—Future: Urban Spatial Succession and Transition of Rail Transit Station Zones in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-35, October.

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