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Correlation between Population Density and COVID-19 Cases during the Third Wave in Malaysia: Effect of the Delta Variant

Author

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  • Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus

    (Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Shah Alam 40170, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Sarbhan Singh Lakha Singh

    (Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Shah Alam 40170, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Sumarni Mohd Ghazali

    (Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Shah Alam 40170, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Cheong Yoon Ling

    (Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Shah Alam 40170, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Tan Cia Vei

    (Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Shah Alam 40170, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri

    (Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Shah Alam 40170, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Nadhar Ahmad Jaafar

    (Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Shah Alam 40170, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Qistina Ruslan

    (Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Shah Alam 40170, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Nur Huda Ahmad Jaghfar

    (Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Shah Alam 40170, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Balvinder Singh Gill

    (Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Shah Alam 40170, Selangor, Malaysia)

Abstract

In this study, we describe the incidence and distribution of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia at district level and determine their correlation with absolute population and population density, before and during the period that the Delta variant was dominant in Malaysia. Methods: Data on the number of locally transmitted COVID-19 cases in each of the 145 districts in Malaysia, between 20 September 2020 and 19 September 2021, were manually extracted from official reports. The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases, population and population density of each district were described using choropleth maps. The correlation between population and population density with the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in each district in the pre-Delta dominant period (20 September 2020–29 June 2021) and during the Delta dominant period (30 June 2021–19 September 2021) were determined using Pearson’s correlation. Results: COVID-19 cases were strongly correlated with both absolute population and population density (Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) = 0.87 and r = 0.78, respectively). A majority of the districts had higher numbers of COVID-19 cases during the Delta dominant period compared to the pre-Delta period. The correlation coefficient in the pre-Delta dominant period was r = 0.79 vs. r = 0.86 during the Delta dominant period, whereas the pre-Delta dominant population density was r = 0.72, and in the Delta dominant period, r = 0.76. Conclusion: More populous and densely populated districts have a higher risk of transmission of COVID-19, especially with the Delta variant as the dominant circulating strain. Therefore, extra and more stringent control measures should be instituted in highly populated areas to control the spread of COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus & Sarbhan Singh Lakha Singh & Sumarni Mohd Ghazali & Cheong Yoon Ling & Tan Cia Vei & Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri & Nadhar Ahmad Jaafar & Qistina Ruslan & Nur Huda Ahmad Jaghfa, 2022. "Correlation between Population Density and COVID-19 Cases during the Third Wave in Malaysia: Effect of the Delta Variant," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:12:p:7439-:d:841221
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Siew Bee Aw & Bor Tsong Teh & Gabriel Hoh Teck Ling & Pau Chung Leng & Weng Howe Chan & Mohd Hamdan Ahmad, 2021. "The COVID-19 Pandemic Situation in Malaysia: Lessons Learned from the Perspective of Population Density," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Li, Ruiqi & Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M., 2018. "Effect of population density on epidemics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 713-724.
    3. David M. Morens & Gregory K. Folkers & Anthony S. Fauci, 2004. "The challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6996), pages 242-249, July.
    4. Kurubaran Ganasegeran & Mohd Fadzly Amar Jamil & Alan Swee Hock Ch’ng & Irene Looi & Kalaiarasu M. Peariasamy, 2021. "Influence of Population Density for COVID-19 Spread in Malaysia: An Ecological Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(18), pages 1-12, September.
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    1. Mohd Radzniwan Abdul Rashid & Sharifah Najwa Syed Mohamad & Ahmad Izzat Ahmad Tajjudin & Nuruliza Roslan & Aida Jaffar & Fathima Begum Syed Mohideen & Faizul Helmi Addnan & Nizam Baharom & Muslimah It, 2023. "COVID-19 Pandemic Fatigue and Its Sociodemographic, Mental Health Status, and Perceived Causes: A Cross-Sectional Study Nearing the Transition to an Endemic Phase in Malaysia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-18, March.
    2. Krzysztof Rząsa & Mateusz Ciski, 2022. "Influence of the Demographic, Social, and Environmental Factors on the COVID-19 Pandemic—Analysis of the Local Variations Using Geographically Weighted Regression," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-26, September.

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