IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v150y2022ics0014292122001714.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19 transmission in cities

Author

Listed:
  • Gerritse, Michiel

Abstract

Do cities accelerate COVID-19 transmission? Increased transmission arising from population density prompts spatial policies for financial support and containment, and poorer prospects for recovery. Using daily case counts from over 3,000 counties in the U.S. from February to September 2020, I estimate a compartmental transmission equation. Rational sheltering behavior plausibly varies by location, so I propose two instruments that exploit unanticipated variation in exposure to potential infection. In the first month of local infections, an additional log point of population density raises the expected transmission parameter estimate by around 3%. After the first month, the relation vanishes: density effects occur only in the outbreaks. Public transport, work-from-home jobs and income explain additional variation in transmission but do not account for the density effects. Consistent with location-varying optimal sheltering behavior, I document stronger mobility declines in denser areas, but only after the first month of infections. These results suggest that differences in transmission between cities and other places do not motivate spatial policies for recovery or containment, or poorer prospects after the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerritse, Michiel, 2022. "COVID-19 transmission in cities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:150:y:2022:i:c:s0014292122001714
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104283
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292122001714
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104283?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward L. Glaeser & Caitlin S. Gorback & Stephen J. Redding, 2020. "How Much Does COVID-19 Increase with Mobility? Evidence from New York and Four Other U.S. Cities," Working Papers 2020-22, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    2. Crowley, Frank & Daly, Hannah & Doran, Justin & Ryan, Geraldine, 2020. "COVID-19, social distancing, remote work and transport choice," SRERC Working Paper Series SRERCWP2020-4, University College Cork (UCC), Spatial and Regional Economic Research Centre (SRERC).
    3. Yun Qiu & Xi Chen & Wei Shi, 2020. "Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1127-1172, October.
    4. Jennifer Beam Dowd & Liliana Andriano & David M. Brazel & Valentina Rotondi & Per Block & Xuejie Ding & Yan Liu & Melinda C. Mills, 2020. "Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(18), pages 9696-9698, May.
    5. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    6. Carozzi, Felipe & Provenzano, Sandro & Roth, Sefi, 2020. "Urban Density and COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13440, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Li, Ruiqi & Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M., 2018. "Effect of population density on epidemics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 713-724.
    8. Max Nathan & Henry Overman, 2020. "Will coronavirus cause a big city exodus?," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(9), pages 1537-1542, November.
    9. Richard Florida & Andres Rodriguez-Pose & Michael Storper, 2020. "Cities in a Post-COVID World," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2041, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Sep 2020.
    10. Song, Li-Peng & Zhang , Rong-Ping & Feng , Li-Ping & Shi, Qiong, 2017. "Pattern dynamics of a spatial epidemic model with time delay," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 292(C), pages 390-399.
    11. Carozzi, Felipe & Provenzano, Sandro & Roth, Sefi, 2020. "Urban density and Covid-19," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108484, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Shima Hamidi & Sadegh Sabouri & Reid Ewing, 2020. "Does Density Aggravate the COVID-19 Pandemic?," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 86(4), pages 495-509, October.
    13. Felipe Carozzi & Sandro Provenzano & Sefi Roth, 2020. "Urban density and Covid-19," CEP Discussion Papers dp1711, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard Florida & Charlotta Mellander, 2022. "The geography of COVID-19 in Sweden," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 68(1), pages 125-150, February.
    2. Alessandro Venerandi & Luca Maria Aiello & Sergio Porta, 2023. "Urban form and COVID-19 cases and deaths in Greater London: An urban morphometric approach," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(5), pages 1228-1243, June.
    3. Althoff, Lukas & Eckert, Fabian & Ganapati, Sharat & Walsh, Conor, 2022. "The Geography of Remote Work," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Ellen, Ingrid Gould & Howland, Renata & Glied, Sherry, 2023. "Demons of density do higher-density environments put people at greater risk of contagious disease?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
    5. Mouratidis, Kostas, 2021. "How COVID-19 reshaped quality of life in cities: A synthesis and implications for urban planning," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    6. Milena Almagro & Joshua Coven & Arpit Gupta & Angelo Orane-Hutchinson, 2020. "Racial Disparities in Frontline Workers and Housing Crowding during COVID-19: Evidence from Geolocation Data," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 37, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Bumjoon Kang & Jaewoong Won & Eun Jung Kim, 2021. "COVID-19 Impact on Residential Preferences in the Early-Stage Outbreak in South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-14, October.
    8. Hung-Ying Chen & Colin McFarlane & Priyam Tripathy, 2024. "Density and pandemic urbanism: Exposure and networked density in Manila and Taipei," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 61(8), pages 1526-1544, June.
    9. Richard Gearhart & Lyudmyla Sonchak-Ardan & Nyakundi Michieka, 2022. "The efficiency of COVID cases to COVID policies: a robust conditional approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 2903-2948, December.
    10. Max Nathan & Henry Overman, 2020. "Will coronavirus cause a big city exodus?," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(9), pages 1537-1542, November.
    11. Almagro, Milena & Coven, Joshua & Gupta, Arpit & Orane-Hutchinson, Angelo, 2023. "Disparities in COVID-19 risk exposure: Evidence from geolocation data," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    12. Siew Bee Aw & Bor Tsong Teh & Gabriel Hoh Teck Ling & Pau Chung Leng & Weng Howe Chan & Mohd Hamdan Ahmad, 2021. "The COVID-19 Pandemic Situation in Malaysia: Lessons Learned from the Perspective of Population Density," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-21, June.
    13. Usep Nugraha & Budy P. Resosudarmo & Rus’an Nasrudin, 2023. "Examining the impact of urban compactness on work and social life disruption during COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Jakarta, Indonesia," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-26, December.
    14. Tsai, I-Chun & Chiang, Ying-Hui & Lin, Shih-Yuan, 2022. "Effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on city-center and suburban housing markets: Evidence from Hangzhou, China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Nikta Bahman Bijari & Mohammad Hadi Mahdinia & Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar, 2021. "Investigation of the urbanization contribution to the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran and the MECA countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(12), pages 17964-17985, December.
    16. Olga De Cos & Valentín Castillo & David Cantarero, 2020. "Facing a Second Wave from a Regional View: Spatial Patterns of COVID-19 as a Key Determinant for Public Health and Geoprevention Plans," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-18, November.
    17. Kar, Armita & Carrel, Andre L. & Miller, Harvey J. & Le, Huyen T. K., 2021. "Reducing public transit compounds social vulnerabilities during COVID-19," OSF Preprints 5xerm, Center for Open Science.
    18. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2021. "The Effect of Public Corruption on Covid-19 Fatality Rate: A Cross-Country Examination," CESifo Working Paper Series 8938, CESifo.
    19. Robert J. R. Elliott & Ingmar Schumacher & Cees Withagen, 2020. "Suggestions for a Covid-19 Post-Pandemic Research Agenda in Environmental Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 1187-1213, August.
    20. Neha Deopa & Piergiuseppe Fortunato, 2022. "Language and the cultural markers of COVID-19," Post-Print hal-03665755, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:150:y:2022:i:c:s0014292122001714. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.