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Machine Learning and Meteorological Normalization for Assessment of Particulate Matter Changes during the COVID-19 Lockdown in Zagreb, Croatia

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Lovrić

    (Know-Center, Inffeldgasse 13, 8010 Graz, Austria
    Institute for Anthropological Research, Gajeva 32, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Mario Antunović

    (Ascalia d.o.o., Ulica Trate 16, 40000 Čakovec, Croatia)

  • Iva Šunić

    (Institute for Anthropological Research, Gajeva 32, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Matej Vuković

    (Pro2Future GmbH, Inffeldgasse 25F, 8010 Graz, Austria)

  • Simonas Kecorius

    (Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, 85764 Neuherberg, Germany)

  • Mark Kröll

    (Know-Center, Inffeldgasse 13, 8010 Graz, Austria)

  • Ivan Bešlić

    (Environmental Hygiene Unit, Institute for Medical Research and Occupational Health, Ksaverska cesta 2, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Ranka Godec

    (Environmental Hygiene Unit, Institute for Medical Research and Occupational Health, Ksaverska cesta 2, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Gordana Pehnec

    (Environmental Hygiene Unit, Institute for Medical Research and Occupational Health, Ksaverska cesta 2, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Bernhard C. Geiger

    (Know-Center, Inffeldgasse 13, 8010 Graz, Austria)

  • Stuart K. Grange

    (Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland
    Wolfson Atmospheric Chemistry Laboratories, Department of Chemistry, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK)

  • Iva Šimić

    (Environmental Hygiene Unit, Institute for Medical Research and Occupational Health, Ksaverska cesta 2, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

In this paper, the authors investigated changes in mass concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during the Coronavirus Disease of 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown. Daily samples of PM 1 , PM 2.5 and PM 10 fractions were measured at an urban background sampling site in Zagreb, Croatia from 2009 to late 2020. For the purpose of meteorological normalization, the mass concentrations were fed alongside meteorological and temporal data to Random Forest (RF) and LightGBM (LGB) models tuned by Bayesian optimization. The models’ predictions were subsequently de-weathered by meteorological normalization using repeated random resampling of all predictive variables except the trend variable. Three pollution periods in 2020 were examined in detail: January and February, as pre-lockdown, the month of April as the lockdown period, as well as June and July as the “new normal”. An evaluation using normalized mass concentrations of particulate matter and Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was conducted. The results showed that no significant differences were observed for PM 1 , PM 2.5 and PM 10 in April 2020—compared to the same period in 2018 and 2019. No significant changes were observed for the “new normal” as well. The results thus indicate that a reduction in mobility during COVID-19 lockdown in Zagreb, Croatia, did not significantly affect particulate matter concentration in the long-term..

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Lovrić & Mario Antunović & Iva Šunić & Matej Vuković & Simonas Kecorius & Mark Kröll & Ivan Bešlić & Ranka Godec & Gordana Pehnec & Bernhard C. Geiger & Stuart K. Grange & Iva Šimić, 2022. "Machine Learning and Meteorological Normalization for Assessment of Particulate Matter Changes during the COVID-19 Lockdown in Zagreb, Croatia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-16, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:11:p:6937-:d:832454
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gordana Pehnec & Ivana Jakovljević, 2018. "Carcinogenic Potency of Airborne Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Relation to the Particle Fraction Size," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-25, November.
    2. Patrick Connerton & João Vicente de Assunção & Regina Maura de Miranda & Anne Dorothée Slovic & Pedro José Pérez-Martínez & Helena Ribeiro, 2020. "Air Quality during COVID-19 in Four Megacities: Lessons and Challenges for Public Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-24, July.
    3. Ivana Jakovljević & Zdravka Sever Štrukil & Ranka Godec & Ivan Bešlić & Silvije Davila & Mario Lovrić & Gordana Pehnec, 2020. "Pollution Sources and Carcinogenic Risk of PAHs in PM 1 Particle Fraction in an Urban Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Zhihu Xu & Ru Cao & Xin Hu & Wenxing Han & Yuxin Wang & Jing Huang & Guoxing Li, 2021. "The Improvement of Air Quality and Associated Mortality during the COVID-19 Lockdown in One Megacity of China: An Empirical Strategy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-10, August.
    5. Sandra Ceballos-Santos & Jaime González-Pardo & David C. Carslaw & Ana Santurtún & Miguel Santibáñez & Ignacio Fernández-Olmo, 2021. "Meteorological Normalisation Using Boosted Regression Trees to Estimate the Impact of COVID-19 Restrictions on Air Quality Levels," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-18, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. He Xu & Aosheng Zhang & Xin Xu & Peng Li & Yimu Ji, 2022. "Prediction of Particulate Concentration Based on Correlation Analysis and a Bi-GRU Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-20, October.
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