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Estimation of Undetected Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in South Korea Using a Probabilistic Model

Author

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  • Chanhee Lee

    (Interdisciplinary Program in Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea)

  • Catherine Apio

    (Interdisciplinary Program in Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea)

  • Taesung Park

    (Interdisciplinary Program in Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea
    Department of Statistics, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea)

Abstract

Increasing evidence shows that many infections of COVID-19 are asymptomatic, becoming a global challenge, since asymptomatic infections have the same infectivity as symptomatic infections. We developed a probabilistic model for estimating the proportion of undetected asymptomatic COVID-19 patients in the country. We considered two scenarios: one is conservative and the other is nonconservative. By combining the above two scenarios, we gave an interval estimation of 0.0001–0.0027 and in terms of the population, 5200–139,900 is the number of undetected asymptomatic cases in South Korea as of 2 February 2021. In addition, we provide estimates for total cases of COVID-19 in South Korea. Combination of undetected asymptomatic cases and undetected symptomatic cases to the number of confirmed cases (78,844 cases on 2 February 2021) shows that 0.17–0.42% (89,244–218,744) of the population have COVID-19. In conclusion, to control and understand the true ongoing reality of the pandemic, it is of outermost importance to focus on the ratio of undetected asymptomatic cases in the total population.

Suggested Citation

  • Chanhee Lee & Catherine Apio & Taesung Park, 2021. "Estimation of Undetected Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in South Korea Using a Probabilistic Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-9, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:9:p:4946-:d:549615
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrea Saltelli, 2002. "Sensitivity Analysis for Importance Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 579-590, June.
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