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Evaluation of COVID-19 Mitigation Policies in Australia Using Generalised Space-Time Autoregressive Intervention Models

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan H. L. Ip

    (School of Computing and Mathematics, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Dmitry Demskoi

    (School of Computing and Mathematics, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Azizur Rahman

    (School of Computing and Mathematics, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Lihong Zheng

    (School of Computing and Mathematics, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

In handling the COVID-19 pandemic, various mitigation policies aiming at slowing the spread and protecting all individuals, especially the vulnerable ones, were implemented. A careful evaluation of the effectiveness of these policies is necessary so that policy-makers can implement informed decisions if another wave of COVID-19 or another pandemic happens in the future. This paper reports an assessment of some policies introduced by the Australian governments using a generalised space-time autoregressive model which incorporates multiple exogenous variables and delay effects. Our results show that the number of daily new cases from the states and territories are influenced by both temporal and spatial aspects. Business and border restrictions are found helpful in reducing the number of new cases a few days after implementation while gathering restrictions may not be effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan H. L. Ip & Dmitry Demskoi & Azizur Rahman & Lihong Zheng, 2021. "Evaluation of COVID-19 Mitigation Policies in Australia Using Generalised Space-Time Autoregressive Intervention Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:14:p:7474-:d:593527
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    References listed on IDEAS

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