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Marine Predators Algorithm for Forecasting Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Italy, USA, Iran and Korea

Author

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  • Mohammed A. A. Al-qaness

    (State Key Laboratory for Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China)

  • Ahmed A. Ewees

    (Department of e-Systems, University of Bisha, Bisha 61922, Saudi Arabia
    Department of Computer, Damietta University, Damietta 34517, Egypt)

  • Hong Fan

    (State Key Laboratory for Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China)

  • Laith Abualigah

    (Faculty of Computer Sciences and Informatics, Amman Arab University, Amman 11953, Jordan)

  • Mohamed Abd Elaziz

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Zagazig University, Zagazig 44519, Egypt)

Abstract

The current pandemic of the new coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), or COVID-19, has received wide attention by scholars and researchers. The vast increase in infected people is a significant challenge for each country and the international community in general. The prediction and forecasting of the number of infected people (so-called confirmed cases) is a critical issue that helps in understanding the fast spread of COVID-19. Therefore, in this article, we present an improved version of the ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system) model to forecast the number of infected people in four countries, Italy, Iran, Korea, and the USA. The improved version of ANFIS is based on a new nature-inspired optimizer, called the marine predators algorithm (MPA). The MPA is utilized to optimize the ANFIS parameters, enhancing its forecasting performance. Official datasets of the four countries are used to evaluate the proposed MPA-ANFIS. Moreover, we compare MPA-ANFIS to several previous methods to evaluate its forecasting performance. Overall, the outcomes show that MPA-ANFIS outperforms all compared methods in almost all performance measures, such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), and Coefficient of Determination( R 2 ). For instance, according to the results of the testing set, the R 2 of the proposed model is 96.48%, 98.59%, 98.74%, and 95.95% for Korea, Italy, Iran, and the USA, respectively. More so, the MAE is 60.31, 3951.94, 217.27, and 12,979, for Korea, Italy, Iran, and the USA, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed A. A. Al-qaness & Ahmed A. Ewees & Hong Fan & Laith Abualigah & Mohamed Abd Elaziz, 2020. "Marine Predators Algorithm for Forecasting Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Italy, USA, Iran and Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-14, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:10:p:3520-:d:359576
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mohammed A. A. Al-qaness & Ahmed A. Ewees & Hong Fan & Mohamed Abd Elaziz, 2020. "Optimized Forecasting Method for Weekly Influenza Confirmed Cases," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-12, May.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Abidhan Bardhan & Raushan Kumar Singh & Sufyan Ghani & Gerasimos Konstantakatos & Panagiotis G. Asteris, 2023. "Modelling Soil Compaction Parameters Using an Enhanced Hybrid Intelligence Paradigm of ANFIS and Improved Grey Wolf Optimiser," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Jelena Musulin & Sandi Baressi Šegota & Daniel Štifanić & Ivan Lorencin & Nikola Anđelić & Tijana Šušteršič & Anđela Blagojević & Nenad Filipović & Tomislav Ćabov & Elitza Markova-Car, 2021. "Application of Artificial Intelligence-Based Regression Methods in the Problem of COVID-19 Spread Prediction: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-39, April.
    4. Laith Abualigah & Ali Diabat, 2023. "Improved multi-core arithmetic optimization algorithm-based ensemble mutation for multidisciplinary applications," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 1833-1874, April.
    5. Khizer Mehmood & Naveed Ishtiaq Chaudhary & Khalid Mehmood Cheema & Zeshan Aslam Khan & Muhammad Asif Zahoor Raja & Ahmad H. Milyani & Abdulellah Alsulami, 2023. "Design of Nonlinear Marine Predator Heuristics for Hammerstein Autoregressive Exogenous System Identification with Key-Term Separation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-20, May.

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