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Roles of Different Transport Modes in the Spatial Spread of the 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) Pandemic in Mainland China

Author

Listed:
  • Jun Cai

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Bo Xu

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Karen Kie Yan Chan

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Xueying Zhang

    (Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY 10029, USA)

  • Bing Zhang

    (School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen 518107, China)

  • Ziyue Chen

    (State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Bing Xu

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, China)

Abstract

There is increasing concern about another influenza pandemic in China. However, the understanding of the roles of transport modes in the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic spread across mainland China is limited. Herein, we collected 127,797 laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in mainland China from May 2009 to April 2010. Arrival days and peak days were calculated for all 340 prefectures to characterize the dissemination patterns of the pandemic. We first evaluated the effects of airports and railway stations on arrival days and peak days, and then we applied quantile regressions to quantify the relationships between arrival days and air, rail, and road travel. Our results showed that early arrival of the virus was not associated with an early incidence peak. Airports and railway stations in prefectures significantly advanced arrival days but had no significant impact on peak days. The pandemic spread across mainland China from the southeast to the northwest in two phases that were split at approximately 1 August 2009. Both air and road travel played a significant role in accelerating the spread during phases I and II, but rail travel was only significant during phase II. In conclusion, in addition to air and road travel, rail travel also played a significant role in accelerating influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 spread between prefectures. Establishing a multiscale mobility network that considers the competitive advantage of rail travel for mid to long distances is essential for understanding the influenza pandemic transmission in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Jun Cai & Bo Xu & Karen Kie Yan Chan & Xueying Zhang & Bing Zhang & Ziyue Chen & Bing Xu, 2019. "Roles of Different Transport Modes in the Spatial Spread of the 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) Pandemic in Mainland China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:2:p:222-:d:197645
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tini Garske & Hongjie Yu & Zhibin Peng & Min Ye & Hang Zhou & Xiaowen Cheng & Jiabing Wu & Neil Ferguson, 2011. "Travel Patterns in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(2), pages 1-9, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Yang & Liu, Qing & Chang, Chia-Hsun, 2023. "China-Europe freight transportation under the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic and government restriction measures," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    2. Chun-Hsiang Chan & Tzai-Hung Wen, 2021. "Revisiting the Effects of High-Speed Railway Transfers in the Early COVID-19 Cross-Province Transmission in Mainland China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-17, June.
    3. Mattia Mazzoli & Riccardo Gallotti & Filippo Privitera & Pere Colet & José J. Ramasco, 2023. "Spatial immunization to abate disease spreading in transportation hubs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Danwen Bao & Liping Yin & Shijia Tian & Jialin Lv & Yanjun Wang & Jian Wang & Chaohao Liao, 2022. "Impact of Different Transportation Modes on the Transmission of COVID-19: Correlation and Strategies from a Case Study in Wuhan, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-22, November.
    5. Bo Xu & Huaiyu Tian & Clive Eric Sabel & Bing Xu, 2019. "Impacts of Road Traffic Network and Socioeconomic Factors on the Diffusion of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) in Mainland China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-14, April.

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