IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v16y2019i24p5102-d297825.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

PM 2.5 Pollution: Health and Economic Effect Assessment Based on a Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

Author

Listed:
  • Keyao Chen

    (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Guizhi Wang

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Lingyan Wu

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Jibo Chen

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Shuai Yuan

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Qi Liu

    (Shandong Beiming Medical Technology Ltd., Jinan 250000, China)

  • Xiaodong Liu

    (School of Computing, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh EH10 5DT, UK)

Abstract

At present particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution represents a serious threat to the public health and the national economic system in China. This paper optimizes the whitening coefficient in a grey Markov model by a genetic algorithm, predicts the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), and then quantifies the health effects of PM 2.5 pollution by utilizing the predicted concentration, computable general equilibrium (CGE), and a carefully designed exposure–response model. Further, the authors establish a social accounting matrix (SAM), calibrate the parameter values in the CGE model, and construct a recursive dynamic CGE model under closed economy conditions to assess the long-term economic losses incurred by PM 2.5 pollution. Subsequently, an empirical analysis was conducted for the Beijing area: Despite the reduced concentration trend, PM 2.5 pollution continued to cause serious damage to human health and the economic system from 2013 to 2020, as illustrated by various facts, including: (1) the estimated premature deaths and individuals suffering haze pollution-related diseases are 156,588 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 43,335–248,914)) and six million, respectively; and (2) the accumulated labor loss and the medical expenditure negatively impact the regional gross domestic product, with an estimated loss of 3062.63 (95% CI: 1,168.77–4671.13) million RMB. These findings can provide useful information for governmental agencies to formulate relevant environmental policies and for communities to promote prevention and rescue strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Keyao Chen & Guizhi Wang & Lingyan Wu & Jibo Chen & Shuai Yuan & Qi Liu & Xiaodong Liu, 2019. "PM 2.5 Pollution: Health and Economic Effect Assessment Based on a Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-17, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:24:p:5102-:d:297825
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/24/5102/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/24/5102/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mathilde Pascal & Magali Corso & Olivier Chanel & Christophe Declercq & Chiara Badaloni & Giulia Cesaroni & Susann Henschel & Kadri Meister & Daniela Haluza & Piedad Martin-Olmedo & Sylvia Medina, 2013. "Assessing the public health impacts of urban air pollution in 25 European cities: Results of the Aphekom project," Post-Print hal-01500894, HAL.
    2. Noy, Ilan, 2009. "The macroeconomic consequences of disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 221-231, March.
    3. Xu, Xiaoliang & Xu, Xuefen & Chen, Qian & Che, Ying, 2018. "The impacts on CO2 emission reduction and haze by coal resource tax reform based on dynamic CGE model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 268-276.
    4. Edward N. Robson & Vinayak V. Dixit, 2017. "A General Equilibrium Framework for Integrated Assessment of Transport and Economic Impacts," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 989-1013, September.
    5. Xili Ma & Huiqing Wang & Weixian Wei, 2019. "The role of emissions trading mechanisms and technological progress in achieving China’s regional clean air target: a CGE analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(2), pages 155-169, January.
    6. J. Lelieveld & J. S. Evans & M. Fnais & D. Giannadaki & A. Pozzer, 2015. "The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale," Nature, Nature, vol. 525(7569), pages 367-371, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Feilan & Wong, Wing-Keung & Reivan Ortiz, Geovanny Genaro & Shraah, Ata Al & Mabrouk, Fatma & Li, Jianfeng & Li, Zeyun, 2023. "Economic analysis of sustainable exports value addition through natural resource management and artificial intelligence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luyuan Xu & Wei Wang, 2021. "A Quantitative Relationship Analysis of Industry Shifts and Trade Restructuring in ASEAN Based on Multiregional Computable General Equilibrium Models," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-12, February.
    2. Tavoos Hassan Bhat & Guo Jiawen & Hooman Farzaneh, 2021. "Air Pollution Health Risk Assessment (AP-HRA), Principles and Applications," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-22, February.
    3. Moon Joon Kim, 2021. "Air Pollution, Health, and Avoidance Behavior: Evidence from South Korea," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 79(1), pages 63-91, May.
    4. Luis Armando Becerra-Pérez & Roberto Alonso Ramos-Álvarez & Juan J. DelaCruz & Benjamín García-Páez & Federico Páez-Osuna & J. Guillermo Cedeño-Laurent & Elena Boldo, 2021. "An Economic Analysis of the Environmental Impact of PM 2.5 Exposure on Health Status in Three Northwestern Mexican Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-17, September.
    5. Trung X. Hoang & Nga V. T. Le, 2021. "Natural disasters and risk aversion: Evidence from Vietnam," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(3), pages 211-229, August.
    6. Cécile Couharde & Rémi Generoso, 2015. "Hydro-climatic thresholds and economic growth reversals in developing countries: an empirical investigation," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    7. van Bergeijk, P.A.G. & Lazzaroni, S., 2013. "Macroeconomics of natural disasters," ISS Working Papers - General Series 50075, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    8. Shaikh M. S. U. Eskander & Sam Fankhauser, 2022. "Income Diversification and Income Inequality: Household Responses to the 2013 Floods in Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, January.
    9. Lanzi, Elisa & Dellink, Rob & Chateau, Jean, 2018. "The sectoral and regional economic consequences of outdoor air pollution to 2060," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 89-113.
    10. Gignoux, Jérémie & Menéndez, Marta, 2016. "Benefit in the wake of disaster: Long-run effects of earthquakes on welfare in rural Indonesia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 26-44.
    11. Ikefuji, Masako & Horii, Ryo, 2012. "Natural disasters in a two-sector model of endogenous growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(9-10), pages 784-796.
    12. Héctor Jorquera & Ana María Villalobos, 2020. "Combining Cluster Analysis of Air Pollution and Meteorological Data with Receptor Model Results for Ambient PM 2.5 and PM 10," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-25, November.
    13. Brian Walsh & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2020. "Measuring Natural Risks in the Philippines: Socioeconomic Resilience and Wellbeing Losses," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 249-293, July.
    14. -, 2014. "Handbook for disaster assessment," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 36823 edited by Eclac.
    15. William Ginn, 2022. "Climate Disasters and the Macroeconomy: Does State-Dependence Matter? Evidence for the US," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 141-161, March.
    16. Ellen Banzhaf & Sally Anderson & Gwendoline Grandin & Richard Hardiman & Anne Jensen & Laurence Jones & Julius Knopp & Gregor Levin & Duncan Russel & Wanben Wu & Jun Yang & Marianne Zandersen, 2022. "Urban-Rural Dependencies and Opportunities to Design Nature-Based Solutions for Resilience in Europe and China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, March.
    17. Rio Yonson & Ilan Noy & JC Gaillard, 2018. "The measurement of disaster risk: An example from tropical cyclones in the Philippines," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 736-765, May.
    18. Allan Wright & Patrice Borda, 2016. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations Under Natural Disaster Shocks in Central America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 97076, Inter-American Development Bank.
    19. Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2014. "Natural disasters and macroeconomic performance: The role of residential investment," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 194 [rev.], University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    20. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2010. "Natural Disasters and Human Capital Accumulation," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 24(2), pages 280-302, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:24:p:5102-:d:297825. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.