IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v16y2019i22p4329-d284271.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring a Moderate Fallow Scale of Cultivated Land in China from the Perspective of Food Security

Author

Listed:
  • Dan Lu

    (School of Geographical Sciences, State Cultivation Base of Eco-agriculture for Southwest Mountainous Land, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
    Research Base of Karst Eco-environments at Nanchuan in Chongqing, Ministry of Nature Resources, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, 2 Tiansheng Rd, Chongqing 400715, China
    The authors are equally contribute to this work.)

  • Yahui Wang

    (School of Geographical Sciences, State Cultivation Base of Eco-agriculture for Southwest Mountainous Land, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
    Research Base of Karst Eco-environments at Nanchuan in Chongqing, Ministry of Nature Resources, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, 2 Tiansheng Rd, Chongqing 400715, China
    The authors are equally contribute to this work.)

  • Qingyuan Yang

    (School of Geographical Sciences, State Cultivation Base of Eco-agriculture for Southwest Mountainous Land, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
    Research Base of Karst Eco-environments at Nanchuan in Chongqing, Ministry of Nature Resources, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, 2 Tiansheng Rd, Chongqing 400715, China)

  • Huiyan He

    (School of Geographical Sciences, State Cultivation Base of Eco-agriculture for Southwest Mountainous Land, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
    Research Base of Karst Eco-environments at Nanchuan in Chongqing, Ministry of Nature Resources, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, 2 Tiansheng Rd, Chongqing 400715, China)

  • Kangchuan Su

    (School of Geographical Sciences, State Cultivation Base of Eco-agriculture for Southwest Mountainous Land, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
    Research Base of Karst Eco-environments at Nanchuan in Chongqing, Ministry of Nature Resources, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, 2 Tiansheng Rd, Chongqing 400715, China)

Abstract

Food security remains a primary concern because of the large population and scarce land resources in China, and it is a core task to determine the appropriate proportion and scale of fallowing for fallow systems. The aim of this study was to systematically estimate the grain production potential (GPP) of existing and unexcavated cultivated land due to land use change from 1990 to 2017 and calculate the theoretical fallowing scale by using a population carrying capacity model. The reserved GPP from cultivated land to be excavated was 7470 × 10 4 t in China, and the GPP stored by the change in grain yield per unit, multiple crop index (MCI) decline, and agricultural structure adjustment were 921 × 10 4 t, 4321 × 10 4 t, and 7760 × 10 4 t, respectively, and the lost GPP caused by construction land expansion was 5287 × 10 4 t. The population carrying capacity of cultivated land in China was estimated to be 1.469 to 1.515 billion in 2017 on the basis of the national average living standard. The proportion of the population that could be fed more was between 6.28% and 9.54% depending on the number of people included, which provided an opportunity to implement the fallowing system in China. Meanwhile the proportions of the theoretical fallow scale were 6.28% and 9.54%, and the fallow scale ranged from 850 × 10 4 hm 2 to 1296 × 10 4 hm 2 under the premise of fully tapping the potential of cultivated land. In addition, taking the decline in MCI as an example, the grain yield reduction was equivalent to the grain yield of 829 × 10 4 hm 2 of newly reclaimed cultivated land over the past 30 years, which saved 621.48 billion yuan. The costs and benefits when formulating relevant policies of land utilization should be considered, and exploiting the productive capacity of cultivated land that exists is better than reclaiming new cultivated land.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Lu & Yahui Wang & Qingyuan Yang & Huiyan He & Kangchuan Su, 2019. "Exploring a Moderate Fallow Scale of Cultivated Land in China from the Perspective of Food Security," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-19, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:22:p:4329-:d:284271
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/22/4329/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/22/4329/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jiao Huang & Ze Liang & Shuyao Wu & Shuangcheng Li, 2019. "Grain Self-Sufficiency Capacity in China’s Metropolitan Areas under Rapid Urbanization: Trends and Regional Differences from 1990 to 2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Xiangbin Kong, 2014. "China must protect high-quality arable land," Nature, Nature, vol. 506(7486), pages 7-7, February.
    3. Qingyuan Yang & Renhao Yang & Yahui Wang & Kaifang Shi, 2019. "Does Fallowing Cultivated Land Threaten Food Security? Empirical Evidence from Chinese Pilot Provinces," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, May.
    4. Shriar, Avrum J., 2002. "Food security and land use deforestation in northern Guatemala," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 395-414, August.
    5. Xie, Hualin & Cheng, Lingjuan & Lu, Hua, 2018. "Farmers’ responses to the winter wheat fallow policy in the groundwater funnel area of China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 195-204.
    6. Xinliang Xu & Liang Wang & Hongyan Cai & Luyao Wang & Luo Liu & Hongzhi Wang, 2017. "The influences of spatiotemporal change of cultivated land on food crop production potential in China," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(3), pages 485-495, June.
    7. Xin, Liangjie & Li, Xiubin, 2018. "China should not massively reclaim new farmland," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 12-15.
    8. Hualin Xie & Jinlang Zou & Hailing Jiang & Ning Zhang & Yongrok Choi, 2014. "Spatiotemporal Pattern and Driving Forces of Arable Land-Use Intensity in China: Toward Sustainable Land Management Using Emergy Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(6), pages 1-17, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Bangbang & Li, Xian & Chen, Haibin & Niu, Wenhao & Kong, Xiangbin & Yu, Qiang & Zhao, Minjuan & Xia, Xianli, 2022. "Identifying opportunities to close yield gaps in China by use of certificated cultivars to estimate potential productivity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Chen, Hang & Meng, Fei & Yu, Zhenning & Tan, Yongzhong, 2022. "Spatial–temporal characteristics and influencing factors of farmland expansion in different agricultural regions of Heilongjiang Province, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    3. Xue Wang, 2022. "Changes in Cultivated Land Loss and Landscape Fragmentation in China from 2000 to 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, May.
    4. Chen, Lili & Song, Ge & Meadows, Michael E. & Zou, Chaohui, 2018. "Spatio-temporal evolution of the early-warning status of cultivated land and its driving factors: A case study of Heilongjiang Province, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 280-292.
    5. Yongzhong Tan & Hang Chen & Kuan Lian & Zhenning Yu, 2020. "Comprehensive Evaluation of Cultivated Land Quality at County Scale: A Case Study of Shengzhou, Zhejiang Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Zhang, Xueru & Song, Wei & Lang, Yanqing & Feng, Xiaomiao & Yuan, Quanzhi & Wang, Jingtao, 2020. "Land use changes in the coastal zone of China’s Hebei Province and the corresponding impacts on habitat quality," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Qiu, Bingwen & Li, Haiwen & Tang, Zhenghong & Chen, Chongcheng & Berry, Joe, 2020. "How cropland losses shaped by unbalanced urbanization process?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    8. Daniel B Abramson, 2020. "Ancient and current resilience in the Chengdu Plain: Agropolitan development re-‘revisited’," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(7), pages 1372-1397, May.
    9. Yan Zhou & Tao Chen & Jingjing Wang & Xiaolan Xu, 2023. "Analyzing the Factors Driving the Changes of Ecosystem Service Value in the Liangzi Lake Basin—A GeoDetector-Based Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-15, November.
    10. Bohua Yu & Wei Song & Yanqing Lang, 2017. "Spatial Patterns and Driving Forces of Greenhouse Land Change in Shouguang City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-15, March.
    11. Cao, Jianjun & Wei, Chen & Adamowski, Jan F. & Zhou, Junju & Liu, Chunfang & Zhu, Guofeng & Dong, Xiaogang & Zhang, Xiaofang & Zhao, Huijun & Feng, Qi, 2020. "Could arid and semi-arid abandoned lands prove ecologically or economically valuable if they afford greater soil organic carbon storage than afforested lands in China’s Loess Plateau?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    12. Chengqiang Li & Junxiao Wang & Liang Ge & Yujie Zhou & Shenglu Zhou, 2022. "Optimization of Sample Construction Based on NDVI for Cultivated Land Quality Prediction," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-17, June.
    13. Li Yu & Zhanqi Wang & Hongwei Zhang & Chao Wei, 2020. "Spatial-Temporal Differentiation Analysis of Agricultural Land Use Intensity and Its Driving Factors at the County Scale: A Case Study in Hubei Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-18, September.
    14. Luoman Pu & Junnan Jiang & Menglu Ma & Duan Huang, 2024. "Gaps between Rice Actual and Potential Yields Based on the VPM and GAEZ Models in Heilongjiang Province, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-22, February.
    15. Yu, Zhenning & She, Shuoqi & Xia, Chuyu & Luo, Jiaojiao, 2023. "How to solve the dilemma of China’s land fallow policy: Application of voluntary bidding mode in the Yangtze River Delta of China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    16. Yang Sheng & Weizhong Liu & Hailiang Xu & Xianchao Gao, 2021. "The Spatial Distribution Characteristics of the Cultivated Land Quality in the Diluvial Fan Terrain of the Arid Region: A Case Study of Jimsar County, Xinjiang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-29, August.
    17. Cheng, Mingyang & Yansui Liu, & Zhou, Yang, 2019. "Measuring the symbiotic development of rural housing and industry: A case study of Fuping County in the Taihang Mountains in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 307-316.
    18. Lu, Hua & Xie, Hualin & Lv, Tiangui & Yao, Guanrong, 2019. "Determinants of cultivated land recuperation in ecologically damaged areas in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 160-166.
    19. Xing Liu & Zhaoyang Cai & Yan Xu & Huihui Zheng & Kaige Wang & Fengrong Zhang, 2022. "Suitability Evaluation of Cultivated Land Reserved Resources in Arid Areas Based on Regional Water Balance," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1463-1479, March.
    20. Kuang, Bing & Han, Jing & Lu, Xinhai & Zhang, Xupeng & Fan, Xiangyu, 2020. "Quantitative evaluation of China’s cultivated land protection policies based on the PMC-Index model," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:22:p:4329-:d:284271. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.