IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v16y2019i19p3686-d272375.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Agricultural Adaptation to Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau

Author

Listed:
  • Yanling Song

    (State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Chunyi Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Hans W. Linderholm

    (Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden
    Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK)

  • Jinfeng Tian

    (Faculty of Agricultural and Nutritional Sciences, Kiel University, 24118 Kiel, Germany)

  • Ying Shi

    (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Jinxia Xu

    (Climate Center of Sichuan Province, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610072, China)

  • Yanju Liu

    (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)

Abstract

The Tibetan plateau is one of the most sensitive areas in China and has been significantly affected by global warming. From 1961 to 2017, the annual air temperature increased by 0.32 °C/decade over the Tibetan Plateau, which is the highest in the whole of China. Furthermore, this is a trend that is projected to continue by 0.30 °C/decade from 2018 to 2050 due to global warming using the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). The increased temperature trend in recent decades has been highest in winter, which has been positive for the safe dormancy of winter wheat. In order to investigate agricultural adaptation to climate change in the Tibetan plateau, we used the World Food Studies (WOFOST) cropping systems model and weather data from the regional climate model RegCM4, to simulate winter wheat production in Guide county between 2018 and 2050. The simulated winter wheat potential yields amounted to 6698.3 kg/ha from 2018 to 2050, which showed the wheat yields would increase by 81%, if winter wheat was planted instead of spring wheat in the Tibetan Plateau with the correct amount of irrigation water. These results indicate that there are not only risks to crop yields from climate change, but also potential benefits. Global warming introduced the possibility to plant winter wheat instead of spring wheat over the Tibetan Plateau. These findings are very important for farmers and government agencies dealing with agricultural adaptation in a warmer climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanling Song & Chunyi Wang & Hans W. Linderholm & Jinfeng Tian & Ying Shi & Jinxia Xu & Yanju Liu, 2019. "Agricultural Adaptation to Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-11, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:19:p:3686-:d:272375
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/19/3686/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/19/3686/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    2. Mike Hulme & Elaine M. Barrow & Nigel W. Arnell & Paula A. Harrison & Timothy C. Johns & Thomas E. Downing, 1999. "Relative impacts of human-induced climate change and natural climate variability," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6721), pages 688-691, February.
    3. Terry L. Root & Jeff T. Price & Kimberly R. Hall & Stephen H. Schneider & Cynthia Rosenzweig & J. Alan Pounds, 2003. "Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 57-60, January.
    4. Camille Parmesan & Gary Yohe, 2003. "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 37-42, January.
    5. van Lanen, H. A. J. & van Diepen, C. A. & Reinds, G. J. & de Koning, G. H. J. & Bulens, J. D. & Bregt, A. K., 1992. "Physical land evaluation methods and GIS to explore the crop growth potential and its effects within the European communities," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 307-328.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhilong Zhao & Zengzeng Hu & Jun Zhou & Ruliang Kan & Wangjun Li, 2023. "Response of Two Major Lakes in the Changtang National Nature Reserve, Tibetan Plateau to Climate and Anthropogenic Changes over the Past 50 Years," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16, January.
    2. Zemin Zhang & Changhe Lu & Xiao Guan, 2023. "Spatial Distributions of Yield Gaps and Production Increase Potentials of Spring Wheat and Highland Barley in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-13, August.
    3. Zemin Zhang & Changhe Lu, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Changes in Frost-Free Season and Its Influence on Spring Wheat Potential Yield on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 1978 to 2017," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-13, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard Tol, 2011. "Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 827-839, October.
    2. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    3. Fabina, Nicholas S. & Abbott, Karen C. & Gilman, R.Tucker, 2010. "Sensitivity of plant–pollinator–herbivore communities to changes in phenology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 453-458.
    4. Ye, Qing & Yang, Xiaoguang & Dai, Shuwei & Chen, Guangsheng & Li, Yong & Zhang, Caixia, 2015. "Effects of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, cropping systems and crop water requirements in southern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 35-44.
    5. Brandt, Laura A. & Benscoter, Allison M. & Harvey, Rebecca & Speroterra, Carolina & Bucklin, David & Romañach, Stephanie S. & Watling, James I. & Mazzotti, Frank J., 2017. "Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 10-20.
    6. Annie Paradis & Joe Elkinton & Katharine Hayhoe & John Buonaccorsi, 2008. "Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and future range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in eastern North America," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 541-554, June.
    7. Robert J. Knell & Stephen J. Thackeray, 2016. "Voltinism and resilience to climate-induced phenological mismatch," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 525-539, August.
    8. Rowell, Jonathan T., 2009. "The limitation of species range: A consequence of searching along resource gradients," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 216-227.
    9. Lee Hannah & Marc Steele & Emily Fung & Pablo Imbach & Lorriane Flint & Alan Flint, 2017. "Climate change influences on pollinator, forest, and farm interactions across a climate gradient," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 63-75, March.
    10. Zdeněk Laštůvka, 2009. "Climate change and its possible influence on the occurrence and importance of insect pests," Plant Protection Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 45(SpecialIs), pages 53-62.
    11. Yingjie Niu & Zhentao Zou, 2024. "Robust Abatement Policy with Uncertainty About Environmental Disasters," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(4), pages 933-965, April.
    12. Singer, Alexander & Johst, Karin & Banitz, Thomas & Fowler, Mike S. & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Gutiérrez, Alvaro G. & Hartig, Florian & Krug, Rainer M. & Liess, Matthias & Matlack, Glenn & Meyer, Katrin M, 2016. "Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 63-74.
    13. Disha Sachan & Pankaj Kumar & Md. Saquib Saharwardi, 2022. "Contemporary climate change velocity for near-surface temperatures over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-19, August.
    14. Ferenc L. Toth & Eva Hizsnyik, 2005. "Managing The Inconceivable: Participatory Assessments Of Impacts And Responses To Extreme Climate Change," Working Papers FNU-74, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2005.
    15. Víctor Rincón & Javier Velázquez & Derya Gülçin & Aida López-Sánchez & Carlos Jiménez & Ali Uğur Özcan & Juan Carlos López-Almansa & Tomás Santamaría & Daniel Sánchez-Mata & Kerim Çiçek, 2023. "Mapping Priority Areas for Connectivity of Yellow-Winged Darter ( Sympetrum flaveolum , Linnaeus 1758) under Climate Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-39, January.
    16. Elizabeth C Elliott & Stephen J Cornell, 2013. "Are Anomalous Invasion Speeds Robust to Demographic Stochasticity?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-8, July.
    17. Lucie Kuczynski & Mathieu Chevalier & Pascal Laffaille & Marion Legrand & Gaël Grenouillet, 2017. "Indirect effect of temperature on fish population abundances through phenological changes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, April.
    18. Sang-Don Lee, 2017. "Global Warming Leading to Phenological Responses in the Process of Urbanization, South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-27, November.
    19. Jianguo Wu, 2016. "Detection and attribution of the effects of climate change on bat distributions over the last 50 years," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 681-696, February.
    20. Marco Archetti & Andrew D Richardson & John O'Keefe & Nicolas Delpierre, 2013. "Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Amount and Duration of Autumn Colors in a New England Forest," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(3), pages 1-8, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:19:p:3686-:d:272375. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.