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Risk Assessment in Urban Large-Scale Public Spaces Using Dempster-Shafer Theory: An Empirical Study in Ningbo, China

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  • Jibiao Zhou

    (School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Ningbo University of Technology, Ningbo 315211, China
    College of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200082, China
    Intelligent Transport System (ITS) R & D Center, Shanghai Urban Construction Design and Research Institute (Group) Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200082, China)

  • Xinhua Mao

    (School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China
    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada)

  • Yiting Wang

    (School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Ningbo University of Technology, Ningbo 315211, China)

  • Minjie Zhang

    (School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Ningbo University of Technology, Ningbo 315211, China)

  • Sheng Dong

    (School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Ningbo University of Technology, Ningbo 315211, China)

Abstract

Urban Large-scale Public Spaces (ULPS) are important areas of urban culture and economic development, which are also places of the potential safety hazard. ULPS safety assessment has played a crucial role in the theory and practice of urban sustainable development. The primary objective of this study is to explore the interaction between ULPS safety risk and its influencing factors. In the first stage, an index sensitivity analysis method was applied to calculate and identify the safety risk assessment index system. Next, a Delphi method and information entropy method were also applied to collect and calculate the weight of risk assessment indicators. In the second stage, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) method with evidence fusion technique was utilized to analyze the interaction between the ULPS safety risk level and the multiple-index variables, measured by four observed performance indicators, i.e., environmental factor, human factor, equipment factor, and management factor. Finally, an empirical study of DST approach for ULPS safety performance analysis was presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Jibiao Zhou & Xinhua Mao & Yiting Wang & Minjie Zhang & Sheng Dong, 2019. "Risk Assessment in Urban Large-Scale Public Spaces Using Dempster-Shafer Theory: An Empirical Study in Ningbo, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-28, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:16:p:2942-:d:258144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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