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Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Failures Based on Fuzzy Event Tree Method

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  • Xiao Fu

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Chong-Shi Gu

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Huai-Zhi Su

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Xiang-Nan Qin

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

Abstract

Earth-rock dams make up a large proportion of the dams in China, and their failures can induce great risks. In this paper, the risks associated with earth-rock dam failure are analyzed from two aspects: the probability of a dam failure and the resulting life loss. An event tree analysis method based on fuzzy set theory is proposed to calculate the dam failure probability. The life loss associated with dam failure is summarized and refined to be suitable for Chinese dams from previous studies. The proposed method and model are applied to one reservoir dam in Jiangxi province. Both engineering and non-engineering measures are proposed to reduce the risk. The risk analysis of the dam failure has essential significance for reducing dam failure probability and improving dam risk management level.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao Fu & Chong-Shi Gu & Huai-Zhi Su & Xiang-Nan Qin, 2018. "Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Failures Based on Fuzzy Event Tree Method," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-22, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:15:y:2018:i:5:p:886-:d:143823
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hasan Elmazoghi, 2013. "Fuzzy algorithm for estimating average breach widths of embankment dams," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 229-248, September.
    2. You Luo & Li Chen & Min Xu & Jie Huang, 2014. "Breaking mode of cohesive homogeneous earth-rock-fill dam by overtopping flow," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 527-540, November.
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    5. Yongfang Wang & Jiquan Zhang & Enliang Guo & Zhongyi Sun, 2015. "Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation-Based Disaster Risk Assessment of Desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-23, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Tchórzewska-Cieślak & Katarzyna Pietrucha-Urbanik & Dorota Papciak, 2019. "An Approach to Estimating Water Quality Changes in Water Distribution Systems Using Fault Tree Analysis," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-11, September.
    2. Miloš Milašinović & Damjan Ivetić & Milan Stojković & Dragan Savić, 2023. "Failure Conditions Assessment of Complex Water Systems Using Fuzzy Logic," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1153-1182, February.
    3. Congcong Zhou & Zhenzhong Shen & Liqun Xu & Yiqing Sun & Wenbing Zhang & Hongwei Zhang & Jiayi Peng, 2023. "Global Sensitivity Analysis Method for Embankment Dam Slope Stability Considering Seepage–Stress Coupling under Changing Reservoir Water Levels," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-24, June.

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