IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v13y2016i3p279-d65022.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating Temperature-Mortality Exposure-Response Relationships and Optimum Ambient Temperature at the Multi-City Level of China

Author

Listed:
  • Qiang Zeng

    (Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Huayue Road, Hedong District, Tianjin 300011, China)

  • Guoxing Li

    (Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China)

  • Yushan Cui

    (Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Huayue Road, Hedong District, Tianjin 300011, China)

  • Guohong Jiang

    (Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Huayue Road, Hedong District, Tianjin 300011, China)

  • Xiaochuan Pan

    (Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China)

Abstract

Few studies have explored temperature–mortality relationships in China, especially at the multi-large city level. This study was based on the data of seven typical, large Chinese cities to examine temperature-mortality relationships and optimum temperature of China. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to analyze the acute-effect of temperature on non-accidental mortality, and meta-analysis was used to merge data. Furthermore, the lagged effects of temperature up to 40 days on mortality and optimum temperature were analyzed using the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We found that for all non-accidental mortality, high temperature could significantly increase the excess risk (ER) of death by 0.33% (95% confidence interval: 0.11%, 0.56%) with the temperature increase of 1 °C. Similar but non-significant ER of death was observed when temperature decreased. The lagged effect of temperature showed that the relative risk of non-accidental mortality was lowest at 21 °C. Our research suggests that high temperatures are more likely to cause an acute increase in mortality. There was a lagged effect of temperature on mortality, with an optimum temperature of 21 °C. Our results could provide a theoretical basis for climate-related public health policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiang Zeng & Guoxing Li & Yushan Cui & Guohong Jiang & Xiaochuan Pan, 2016. "Estimating Temperature-Mortality Exposure-Response Relationships and Optimum Ambient Temperature at the Multi-City Level of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-12, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:13:y:2016:i:3:p:279-:d:65022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/13/3/279/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/13/3/279/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathan A. Patz & Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum & Tracey Holloway & Jonathan A. Foley, 2005. "Impact of regional climate change on human health," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 310-317, November.
    2. Vandentorren, S. & Suzan, F. & Medina, S. & Pascal, M. & Maulpoix, A. & Cohen, J.-C. & Ledrans, M., 2004. "Mortality in 13 French cities during the August 2003 heat wave," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 94(9), pages 1518-1520.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xerxes T. Seposo & Tran Ngoc Dang & Yasushi Honda, 2017. "How Does Ambient Air Temperature Affect Diabetes Mortality in Tropical Cities?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-10, April.
    2. Ru Cao & Yuxin Wang & Jing Huang & Jie He & Pitakchon Ponsawansong & Jianbo Jin & Zhihu Xu & Teng Yang & Xiaochuan Pan & Tippawan Prapamontol & Guoxing Li, 2021. "The Mortality Effect of Apparent Temperature: A Multi-City Study in Asia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-12, April.
    3. Wentan Dong & Qiang Zeng & Yue Ma & Guoxing Li & Xiaochuan Pan, 2016. "Impact of Heat Wave Definitions on the Added Effect of Heat Waves on Cardiovascular Mortality in Beijing, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-12, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bing Li & Zhifeng Liu & Ying Nan & Shengnan Li & Yanmin Yang, 2018. "Comparative Analysis of Urban Heat Island Intensities in Chinese, Russian, and DPRK Regions across the Transnational Urban Agglomeration of the Tumen River in Northeast Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Nicolas Taconet & Aurélie Méjean & Céline Guivarch, 2020. "Influence of climate change impacts and mitigation costs on inequality between countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 15-34, May.
    3. Mariani, Fabio & Pérez-Barahona, Agustín & Raffin, Natacha, 2010. "Life expectancy and the environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 798-815, April.
    4. Louise Bedsworth, 2012. "California’s local health agencies and the state’s climate adaptation strategy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(1), pages 119-133, March.
    5. Daniele Martini & Pietro Bezzini & Michela Longo, 2024. "Environmental Impact of Electrification on Local Public Transport: Preliminary Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-23, November.
    6. Alper Ozpinar, 2023. "A Hyper-Integrated Mobility as a Service (MaaS) to Gamification and Carbon Market Enterprise Architecture Framework for Sustainable Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-22, March.
    7. Flückiger, Matthias & Ludwig, Markus, 2022. "Temperature and risk of diarrhoea among children in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    8. Nicholas A. Mailloux & Colleen P. Henegan & Dorothy Lsoto & Kristen P. Patterson & Paul C. West & Jonathan A. Foley & Jonathan A. Patz, 2021. "Climate Solutions Double as Health Interventions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-15, December.
    9. SangHyeok Lee & Donghyun Kim, 2022. "Multidisciplinary Understanding of the Urban Heating Problem and Mitigation: A Conceptual Framework for Urban Planning," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-15, August.
    10. Shinji Otani & Satomi Funaki Ishizu & Toshio Masumoto & Hiroki Amano & Youichi Kurozawa, 2021. "The Effect of Minimum and Maximum Air Temperatures in the Summer on Heat Stroke in Japan: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-12, February.
    11. Neha Sinha, 2012. "Climate Change Issues and Global Negotiations," Insight on Africa, , vol. 4(1), pages 35-57, January.
    12. Zhihui Liu & Yongna Meng & Hao Xiang & Yuanan Lu & Suyang Liu, 2020. "Association of Short-Term Exposure to Meteorological Factors and Risk of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-18, October.
    13. Rachel Lowe & Markel García-Díez & Joan Ballester & James Creswick & Jean-Marie Robine & François R. Herrmann & Xavier Rodó, 2016. "Evaluation of an Early-Warning System for Heat Wave-Related Mortality in Europe: Implications for Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting and Climate Services," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13, February.
    14. Jinling Quan, 2019. "Multi-Temporal Effects of Urban Forms and Functions on Urban Heat Islands Based on Local Climate Zone Classification," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-35, June.
    15. V. Savo & K. E. Kohfeld & J. Sillmann & C. Morton & J. Bailey & A. S. Haslerud & C. Le Quéré & D. Lepofsky, 2024. "Using human observations with instrument-based metrics to understand changing rainfall patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    16. Gregory Casey & Soheil Shayegh & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Bunzl & Oded Galor & Ken Caldeira, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility," Working Papers 2019-2, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    17. Hu, Saiquan & Jia, Xiao & Zhang, Xiaojin & Zheng, Xiaoying & Zhu, Junming, 2017. "How political ideology affects climate perception: Moderation effects of time orientation and knowledge," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 124-131.
    18. Agnieszka Sompolska-Rzechuła & Agnieszka Kurdyś-Kujawska, 2021. "Towards Understanding Interactions between Sustainable Development Goals: The Role of Climate-Well-Being Linkages. Experiences of EU Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-20, April.
    19. Dobes Leo & Jotzo Frank & Stern David I., 2014. "The Economics of Global Climate Change: A Historical Literature Review," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(3), pages 281-320, December.
    20. Mpandeli, S. & Naidoo, D. & Mabhaudhi, T. & Nhemachena, Charles & Nhamo, Luxon & Liphadzi, S. & Hlahla, S. & Modi, A. T., "undated". "Climate change adaptation through the water-energy-food nexus in southern Africa," Papers published in Journals (Open Access) H048960, International Water Management Institute.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:13:y:2016:i:3:p:279-:d:65022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.