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Temperature Variation and Heat Wave and Cold Spell Impacts on Years of Life Lost Among the Urban Poor Population of Nairobi, Kenya

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  • Thaddaeus Egondi

    (African Population and Health Research Center, Nairobi, P.O. Box 10787-00100, Kenya
    Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, SE–901-87, Sweden)

  • Catherine Kyobutungi

    (African Population and Health Research Center, Nairobi, P.O. Box 10787-00100, Kenya)

  • Joacim Rocklöv

    (Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, SE–901-87, Sweden)

Abstract

Weather extremes are associated with adverse health outcomes, including mortality. Studies have investigated the mortality risk of temperature in terms of excess mortality, however, this risk estimate may not be appealing to policy makers assessing the benefits expected for any interventions to be adopted. To provide further evidence of the burden of extreme temperatures, we analyzed the effect of temperature on years of life lost (YLL) due to all-cause mortality among the population in two urban informal settlements. YLL was generated based on the life expectancy of the population during the study period by applying a survival analysis approach. Association between daily maximum temperature and YLL was assessed using a distributed lag nonlinear model. In addition, cold spell and heat wave effects, as defined according to different percentiles, were investigated. The exposure-response curve between temperature and YLL was J-shaped, with the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) of 26 °C. An average temperature of 21 °C compared to the MMT was associated with an increase of 27.4 YLL per day (95% CI, 2.7–52.0 years). However, there was no additional effect for extended periods of cold spells, nor did we find significant associations between YLL to heat or heat waves. Overall, increased YLL from all-causes were associated with cold spells indicating the need for initiating measure for reducing health burdens.

Suggested Citation

  • Thaddaeus Egondi & Catherine Kyobutungi & Joacim Rocklöv, 2015. "Temperature Variation and Heat Wave and Cold Spell Impacts on Years of Life Lost Among the Urban Poor Population of Nairobi, Kenya," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-14, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2015:i:3:p:2735-2748:d:46259
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan D. Lopez & Colin D. Mathers & Majid Ezzati & Dean T. Jamison & Christopher J. L. Murray, 2006. "Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7039.
    2. Cunrui Huang & Adrian G. Barnett & Xiaoming Wang & Shilu Tong, 2012. "The impact of temperature on years of life lost in Brisbane, Australia," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 265-270, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vijendra Ingole & Joacim Rocklöv & Sanjay Juvekar & Barbara Schumann, 2015. "Impact of Heat and Cold on Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Vadu HDSS—A Rural Setting in Western India," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Tao Luo & Zijing Zhang & Xinchen Hong & Yanyun Wang & Xuewei Zhang, 2022. "Evaluating Spatial Identity Based on Climate Adaptation in Small Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, December.

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