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Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology of Human West Nile Virus Disease in South Dakota

Author

Listed:
  • Michael C. Wimberly

    (Geospatial Sciences Center of Excellence, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD 57007, USA)

  • Paolla Giacomo

    (Geospatial Sciences Center of Excellence, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD 57007, USA)

  • Lon Kightlinger

    (South Dakota Department of Health, Pierre, SD 57501, USA)

  • Michael B. Hildreth

    (Departments of Biology & Microbiology and Veterinary & Biomedical Sciences, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD 57007, USA)

Abstract

Despite a cold temperate climate and low human population density, the Northern Great Plains has become a persistent hot spot for human West Nile virus (WNV) disease in North America. Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of WNV can provide insights into the epidemiological and ecological factors that influence disease emergence and persistence. We analyzed the 1,962 cases of human WNV disease that occurred in South Dakota from 2002–2012 to identify the geographic distribution, seasonal cycles, and interannual variability of disease risk. The geographic and seasonal patterns of WNV have changed since the invasion and initial epidemic in 2002–2003, with cases shifting toward the eastern portion of South Dakota and occurring earlier in the transmission season in more recent years. WNV cases were temporally autocorrelated at lags of up to six weeks and early season cumulative case numbers were correlated with seasonal totals, indicating the possibility of using these data for short-term early detection of outbreaks. Epidemiological data are likely to be most effective for early warning of WNV virus outbreaks if they are integrated with entomological surveillance and environmental monitoring to leverage the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of each information source.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael C. Wimberly & Paolla Giacomo & Lon Kightlinger & Michael B. Hildreth, 2013. "Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology of Human West Nile Virus Disease in South Dakota," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:10:y:2013:i:11:p:5584-5602:d:29966
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scott Zeger & Rafael Irizarry & Roger Peng, 2004. "On Time Series Analysis of Public Health and Biomedical Data," Johns Hopkins University Dept. of Biostatistics Working Paper Series 1054, Berkeley Electronic Press.
    2. Shannon L. LaDeau & A. Marm Kilpatrick & Peter P. Marra, 2007. "West Nile virus emergence and large-scale declines of North American bird populations," Nature, Nature, vol. 447(7145), pages 710-713, June.
    3. Ting-Wu Chuang & Michael C Wimberly, 2012. "Remote Sensing of Climatic Anomalies and West Nile Virus Incidence in the Northern Great Plains of the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-10, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Johnny A. Uelmen & Charles Brokopp & Jonathan Patz, 2020. "A 15 Year Evaluation of West Nile Virus in Wisconsin: Effects on Wildlife and Human Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-24, March.

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