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The Incidence of West Nile Disease in Russia in Relation to Climatic and Environmental Factors

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander E. Platonov

    (Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Novogireevskaya Street 3A, Moscow 111123, Russia)

  • Vladimir A. Tolpin

    (Space Research Institute, Profsoyuznaya Street 84/32, Moscow 117997, Russia)

  • Kristina A. Gridneva

    (Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Novogireevskaya Street 3A, Moscow 111123, Russia)

  • Anton V. Titkov

    (Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Novogireevskaya Street 3A, Moscow 111123, Russia)

  • Olga V. Platonova

    (Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Novogireevskaya Street 3A, Moscow 111123, Russia)

  • Nadezhda M. Kolyasnikova

    (Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Novogireevskaya Street 3A, Moscow 111123, Russia)

  • Luca Busani

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Viale Regina Elena 299, Rome 00161, Italy)

  • Giovanni Rezza

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Viale Regina Elena 299, Rome 00161, Italy)

Abstract

Since 1999, human cases of West Nile fever/neuroinvasive disease (WND) have been reported annually in Russia. The highest incidence has been recorded in three provinces of southern European Russia (Volgograd, Astrakhan and Rostov Provinces), yet in 2010–2012 the distribution of human cases expanded northwards considerably. From year to year, the number of WND cases varied widely, with major WND outbreaks in 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2012. The present study was aimed at identifying the most important climatic and environmental factors potentially affecting WND incidence in the three above-mentioned provinces and at building simple prognostic models, using those factors, by the decision trees method. The effects of 96 variables, including mean monthly temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, etc. were taken into account. The findings of this analysis show that an increase of human WND incidence, compared to the previous year, was mostly driven by higher temperatures in May and/or in June, as well as (to a lesser extent) by high August-September temperatures. Declining incidence was associated with cold winters (December and/or January, depending on the region and type of model). WND incidence also tended to decrease during year following major WND outbreaks. Combining this information, the future trend of WND may be, to some extent, predicted, in accordance with the climatic conditions observed before the summer peak of WND incidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander E. Platonov & Vladimir A. Tolpin & Kristina A. Gridneva & Anton V. Titkov & Olga V. Platonova & Nadezhda M. Kolyasnikova & Luca Busani & Giovanni Rezza, 2014. "The Incidence of West Nile Disease in Russia in Relation to Climatic and Environmental Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:11:y:2014:i:2:p:1211-1232:d:32405
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ting-Wu Chuang & Michael C Wimberly, 2012. "Remote Sensing of Climatic Anomalies and West Nile Virus Incidence in the Northern Great Plains of the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-10, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Svetlana Malkhazova & Polina Pestina & Anna Prasolova & Dmitry Orlov, 2020. "Emerging Natural Focal Infectious Diseases in Russia: A Medical–Geographical Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-12, October.

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