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Evaluating the Potential of Copulas for Modeling Correlated Scenarios for Hydro, Wind, and Solar Energy

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  • Anderson M. Iung

    (Industrial Engineering Department, PUC-Rio-Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Rua Marquês de São Vicente, 225 Gávea, Rio de Janeiro 22451-900, RJ, Brazil)

  • Fernando L. Cyrino Oliveira

    (Industrial Engineering Department, PUC-Rio-Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Rua Marquês de São Vicente, 225 Gávea, Rio de Janeiro 22451-900, RJ, Brazil)

  • Andre L. M. Marcato

    (Department of Electrical Energy, UFJF-Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Rua José Lourenço Kelmer, s/n-São Pedro, Juiz de Fora 36036-900, MG, Brazil)

  • Guilherme A. A. Pereira

    (Department of Economics, UFES-Federal University of Espírito Santo, Av. Fernando Ferrari 514, Vitória 29075-910, ES, Brazil)

Abstract

The increasing global adoption of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources has transformed the use of forecasting, scenario planning, and other techniques for managing their inherent generation uncertainty and interdependencies. What were once desirable enhancements are now fundamental requirements. This is more prominent in Brazil, given the large hydro capacity that has been installed. Given the need to understand the interdependencies within variable renewable energy systems, copula-based techniques are receiving increasing consideration. The objective is to explore and model the correlation and complementarity, based on the copula approach, evaluating the potential of this methodology considering a case test composed of hydro, wind, and solar assets. The proposed framework simulated joint scenarios for monthly natural energy (streamflows transformed into energy), wind speed and solar radiation, applied to a small case test, considering historical data from the Brazilian energy system. The results demonstrate that simulated scenarios are validated by their ability to replicate key statistical attributes of the historical record, as well as the interplay and complementarity among hydrology, wind speed, and solar radiation.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson M. Iung & Fernando L. Cyrino Oliveira & Andre L. M. Marcato & Guilherme A. A. Pereira, 2025. "Evaluating the Potential of Copulas for Modeling Correlated Scenarios for Hydro, Wind, and Solar Energy," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:7:y:2025:i:1:p:7-:d:1580616
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Denault, Michel & Dupuis, Debbie & Couture-Cardinal, Sébastien, 2009. "Complementarity of hydro and wind power: Improving the risk profile of energy inflows," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5376-5384, December.
    3. Guilherme Armando Almeida Pereira & Álvaro Veiga, 2019. "Periodic Copula Autoregressive Model Designed to Multivariate Streamflow Time Series Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(10), pages 3417-3431, August.
    4. Ávila R., Leandro & Mine, Miriam R.M. & Kaviski, Eloy & Detzel, Daniel H.M. & Fill, Heinz D. & Bessa, Marcelo R. & Pereira, Guilherme A.A., 2020. "Complementarity modeling of monthly streamflow and wind speed regimes based on a copula-entropy approach: A Brazilian case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    5. Alexander J. McNeil & Rüdiger Frey & Paul Embrechts, 2015. "Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools Revised edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10496.
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