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Market and Survey Forecasts of the Three-Month Treasury-Bill Rate

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  • Hafer, R W
  • Hein, Scott E
  • MacDonald, S Scott

Abstract

In this article, four readily available one-quarter-ahead forecasts of the three-month U.S. Treasury bill rate are compared. The forecasts considered are (1) a prediction from the futures market, (2) a forecast derived from an implicit forward rate calculation, (3) a survey-gathered forecast, and (4) a no-change forecast. Each forecast is examined for general forecast accuracy and for the extent of bias contained in each forecast over the twelve-year period 1977-88. Results indicate that the futures rate statistically dominates the other three forecasts, while the survey and forward rate projections generally are found to be the least accurate and most biased. Copyright 1992 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Hafer, R W & Hein, Scott E & MacDonald, S Scott, 1992. "Market and Survey Forecasts of the Three-Month Treasury-Bill Rate," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 123-138, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:65:y:1992:i:1:p:123-38
    DOI: 10.1086/296560
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    Cited by:

    1. Capistrán Carlos & López Moctezuma Gabriel, 2008. "Experts' Macroeconomics Expectations: An Evaluation of Mexican Short-Run Forecasts," Working Papers 2008-11, Banco de México.
    2. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2004. "Interest Rate Modeling and Forecasting in India," Occasional papers 3, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    3. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2011. "Time-variation in term premia: International survey-based evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 605-622, June.
    4. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    5. Bumba Mukherjee & David Leblang, 2007. "Partisan Politics, Interest Rates And The Stock Market: Evidence From American And British Returns In The Twentieth Century," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 135-167, July.
    6. John M. Gandar & Richard A. Zuber & William H. Dare, 2000. "The Search for Informed Traders in the Totals Betting Market for National Basketball Association Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 1(2), pages 177-186, May.
    7. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2008. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 438-448, December.
    8. Nourzad, Farrokh & Scott Grennier, R., 1995. "Cointegration analysis of the expectations theory of the term structure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 281-292, August.
    9. Jansen, Dennis W. & Kishan, Ruby Pandey, 1996. "An evaluation of federal reserve forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 89-109.
    10. Ahrens, Ralf, 1999. "Improving market-based forecasts of short-term interest rates: Time-varying stationarity and the predictive content of switching regime-expectations," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    11. Greer, Mark, 2003. "Directional accuracy tests of long-term interest rate forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 291-298.
    12. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2008. "Forecasting Interest Rates in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 2(1), pages 1-41, March.
    13. Warwick Smith & Anca M. Hanea & Mark A. Burgman, 2022. "Can Groups Improve Expert Economic and Financial Forecasts?," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-18, August.
    14. Batchelor, Roy & Peel, David A., 1998. "Rationality testing under asymmetric loss," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 49-54, October.
    15. Lin, James Wuh, 1996. "Arbitrage, carrying costs, and inflation: A reexamination of market efficiency in treasury bill futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 207-222.
    16. Richard Deaves, 1996. "Forecasting Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 615-634, August.

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