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Classical meets modern in the IDEA protocol for structured expert judgement

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  • A.M. Hanea
  • M.F. McBride
  • M.A. Burgman
  • B.C. Wintle

Abstract

Expert judgement is pervasive in all forms of risk analysis, yet the development of tools to deal with such judgements in a repeatable and transparent fashion is relatively recent. This work outlines new findings related to an approach to expert elicitation termed the IDEA protocol. IDEA combines psychologically robust interactions among experts with mathematical aggregation of individual estimates. In particular, this research explores whether communication among experts adversely effects the reliability of group estimates. Using data from estimates of the outcomes of geopolitical events, we find that loss of independence is relatively modest and it is compensated by improvements in group accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • A.M. Hanea & M.F. McBride & M.A. Burgman & B.C. Wintle, 2018. "Classical meets modern in the IDEA protocol for structured expert judgement," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 417-433, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:21:y:2018:i:4:p:417-433
    DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2016.1215346
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Julia R. Falconer & Eibe Frank & Devon L. L. Polaschek & Chaitanya Joshi, 2022. "Methods for Eliciting Informative Prior Distributions: A Critical Review," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 19(3), pages 189-204, September.
    2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:14:y:2019:i:1:p:91-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Martine J. Barons & Lael E. Walsh & Edward E. Salakpi & Linda Nichols, 2024. "A Decision Support System for Sustainable Agriculture and Food Loss Reduction under Uncertain Agricultural Policy Frameworks," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-21, March.
    4. Felix Made & Ngianga-Bakwin Kandala & Derk Brouwer, 2023. "Bayesian Hierarchical Framework from Expert Elicitation in the South African Coal Mining Industry for Compliance Testing," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-15, January.
    5. Anca M. Hanea & Marissa F. McBride & Mark A. Burgman & Bonnie C. Wintle, 2018. "The Value of Performance Weights and Discussion in Aggregated Expert Judgments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(9), pages 1781-1794, September.
    6. Ans Vercammen & Yan Ji & Mark Burgman, 2019. "The collective intelligence of random small crowds: A partial replication of Kosinski et al. (2012)," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 14(1), pages 91-98, January.
    7. Warwick Smith & Anca M. Hanea & Mark A. Burgman, 2022. "Can Groups Improve Expert Economic and Financial Forecasts?," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-18, August.

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