IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jfinte/v3y2024i3p20-378d1441456.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamics between Bitcoin Market Trends and Social Media Activity

Author

Listed:
  • George Vlahavas

    (School of Informatics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Athena Vakali

    (School of Informatics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece)

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between Bitcoin market dynamics and user activity on the r/cryptocurrency subreddit. The purpose of this research is to understand how social media activity correlates with Bitcoin price and trading volume, and to explore the sentiment and topical focus of Reddit discussions. We collected data on Bitcoin’s closing price and trading volume from January 2021 to December 2022, alongside the most popular posts and comments from the subreddit during the same period. Our analysis revealed significant correlations between Bitcoin market metrics and Reddit activity, with user discussions often reacting to market changes. Additionally, user activity on Reddit may indirectly influence the market through broader social and economic factors. Sentiment analysis showed that positive comments were more prevalent during price surges, while negative comments increased during downturns. Topic modeling identified four main discussion themes, which varied over time, particularly during market dips. These findings suggest that social media activity on Reddit can provide valuable insights into market trends and investor sentiment. Overall, our study highlights the influential role of online communities in shaping cryptocurrency market dynamics, offering potential tools for market prediction and regulation.

Suggested Citation

  • George Vlahavas & Athena Vakali, 2024. "Dynamics between Bitcoin Market Trends and Social Media Activity," FinTech, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-30, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jfinte:v:3:y:2024:i:3:p:20-378:d:1441456
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2674-1032/3/3/20/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2674-1032/3/3/20/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kraaijeveld, Olivier & De Smedt, Johannes, 2020. "The predictive power of public Twitter sentiment for forecasting cryptocurrency prices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Breidbach, Christoph F. & Tana, Silviana, 2021. "Betting on Bitcoin: How social collectives shape cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 311-320.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yousaf, Imran & Youssef, Manel & Goodell, John W., 2022. "Quantile connectedness between sentiment and financial markets: Evidence from the S&P 500 twitter sentiment index," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Koray Caliskan, 2022. "The Elephant in the Dark: A New Framework for Cryptocurrency Taxation and Exchange Platform Regulation in the US," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-18, March.
    3. Fathin Faizah Said & Raja Solan Somasuntharam & Mohd Ridzwan Yaakub & Tamat Sarmidi, 2023. "Impact of Google searches and social media on digital assets’ volatility," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Xiaotong Sun & Charalampos Stasinakis & Georigios Sermpinis, 2022. "Decentralization illusion in Decentralized Finance: Evidence from tokenized voting in MakerDAO polls," Papers 2203.16612, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    5. Ajithakumari Vijayappan Nair Biju & Ann Susan Thomas, 2023. "Uncertainties and ambivalence in the crypto market: an urgent need for a regional crypto regulation," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(8), pages 1-21, August.
    6. Man-Fai Leung & Lewis Chan & Wai-Chak Hung & Siu-Fung Tsoi & Chun-Hin Lam & Yiu-Hang Cheng, 2023. "An Intelligent System for Trading Signal of Cryptocurrency Based on Market Tweets Sentiments," FinTech, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17, March.
    7. Meyer, Eva Andrea & Welpe, Isabell M. & Sandner, Philipp, 2024. "Testing the credibility of crypto influencers: An event study on Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. A. V. Biju & Aparna Merin Mathew & P. P. Nithi Krishna & M. P. Akhil, 2022. "Is the future of bitcoin safe? A triangulation approach in the reality of BTC market through a sentiments analysis," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 275-290, December.
    9. Bennett, Donyetta & Mekelburg, Erik & Strauss, Jack & Williams, T.H., 2024. "Unlocking the black box of sentiment and cryptocurrency: What, which, why, when and how?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Yousaf, Imran & Abrar, Afsheen & Yousaf, Umair Bin & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Environmental attention and uncertainties of cryptocurrency market: Examining linkages with crypto-mining stocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    11. Voraprapa Nakavachara & Roongkiat Ratanabanchuen & Kanis Saengchote & Thitiphong Amonthumniyom & Pongsathon Parinyavuttichai & Polpatt Vinaibodee, 2023. "Do People Gamble or Invest in the Cryptocurrency Market? Transactional-Level Evidence from Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 206, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Feb 2024.
    12. Liu, Jian & Julaiti, Jiansuer & Gou, Shangde, 2024. "Decomposing interconnectedness: A study of cryptocurrency spillover effects in global financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    13. He, Xue-Zhong & Treich, Nicolas, 2017. "Prediction market prices under risk aversion and heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 105-114.
    14. Zribi, Wissal & Boufateh, Talel & Guesmi, Khaled, 2023. "Climate uncertainty effects on bitcoin ecological footprint through cryptocurrency environmental attention," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    15. Koch, Sophia & Dimpfl, Thomas, 2023. "Attention and retail investor herding in cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    16. Belk, Russell & Humayun, Mariam & Brouard, Myriam, 2022. "Money, possessions, and ownership in the Metaverse: NFTs, cryptocurrencies, Web3 and Wild Markets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 198-205.
    17. Andreas Hackethal & Tobin Hanspal & Dominique M Lammer & Kevin Rink, 2022. "The Characteristics and Portfolio Behavior of Bitcoin Investors: Evidence from Indirect Cryptocurrency Investments [The investor in structured retail products: advice driven or gambling oriented]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 855-898.
    18. Ramirez, Philip & Reade, J. James & Singleton, Carl, 2023. "Betting on a buzz: Mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1413-1423.
    19. Jacques Vella Critien & Albert Gatt & Joshua Ellul, 2022. "Bitcoin price change and trend prediction through twitter sentiment and data volume," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, December.
    20. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jfinte:v:3:y:2024:i:3:p:20-378:d:1441456. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.