IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i3p1370-d1049515.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Renewable Energy Forecasting Based on Stacking Ensemble Model and Al-Biruni Earth Radius Optimization Algorithm

Author

Listed:
  • Abdulrahman A. Alghamdi

    (Department of Computer Science, College of Computing and Information Technology, Shaqra University, Shaqra 11961, Saudi Arabia)

  • Abdelhameed Ibrahim

    (Computer Engineering and Control Systems Department, Faculty of Engineering, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt)

  • El-Sayed M. El-Kenawy

    (Department of Communications and Electronics, Delta Higher Institute of Engineering and Technology, Mansoura 35111, Egypt)

  • Abdelaziz A. Abdelhamid

    (Department of Computer Science, College of Computing and Information Technology, Shaqra University, Shaqra 11961, Saudi Arabia
    Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Computer and Information Sciences, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11566, Egypt)

Abstract

Introduction : Wind speed and solar radiation are two of the most well-known and widely used renewable energy sources worldwide. Coal, natural gas, and petroleum are examples of fossil fuels that are not replenished and are thus non-renewable energy sources due to their high carbon content and the methods by which they are generated. To predict energy production of renewable sources, researchers use energy forecasting techniques based on the recent advances in machine learning approaches. Numerous prediction methods have significant drawbacks, including high computational complexity and inability to generalize for various types of sources of renewable energy sources. Methodology : In this paper, we proposed a novel approach capable of generalizing the prediction accuracy for both wind speed and solar radiation forecasting data. The proposed approach is based on a new optimization algorithm and a new stacked ensemble model. The new optimization algorithm is a hybrid of Al-Biruni Earth Radius (BER) and genetic algorithm (GA) and it is denoted by the GABER optimization algorithm. This algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of the proposed stacked ensemble model to boost the prediction accuracy and to improve the generalization capability. Results : To evaluate the proposed approach, several experiments are conducted to study its effectiveness and superiority compared to other optimization methods and forecasting models. In addition, statistical tests are conducted to assess the significance and difference of the proposed approach. The recorded results proved the proposed approach’s superiority, effectiveness, generalization, and statistical significance when compared to state-of-the-art methods. Conclusions : The proposed approach is capable of predicting both wind speed and solar radiation with better generalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdulrahman A. Alghamdi & Abdelhameed Ibrahim & El-Sayed M. El-Kenawy & Abdelaziz A. Abdelhamid, 2023. "Renewable Energy Forecasting Based on Stacking Ensemble Model and Al-Biruni Earth Radius Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-30, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:1370-:d:1049515
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/3/1370/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/3/1370/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ding, Fangfang & Tian, Zhigang & Zhao, Fuqiong & Xu, Hao, 2018. "An integrated approach for wind turbine gearbox fatigue life prediction considering instantaneously varying load conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(PA), pages 260-270.
    2. Han, Shuang & Qiao, Yan-hui & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yong-qian & Li, Li & Wang, Zheng, 2019. "Mid-to-long term wind and photovoltaic power generation prediction based on copula function and long short term memory network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 181-191.
    3. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    4. Jian-Wu Bi & Tian-Yu Han & Hui Li, 2022. "International tourism demand forecasting with machine learning models: The power of the number of lagged inputs," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 621-645, May.
    5. Abdulelah Alkesaiberi & Fouzi Harrou & Ying Sun, 2022. "Efficient Wind Power Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods: A Comparative Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-24, March.
    6. Hao Zhen & Dongxiao Niu & Min Yu & Keke Wang & Yi Liang & Xiaomin Xu, 2020. "A Hybrid Deep Learning Model and Comparison for Wind Power Forecasting Considering Temporal-Spatial Feature Extraction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-24, November.
    7. Shahram Hanifi & Xiaolei Liu & Zi Lin & Saeid Lotfian, 2020. "A Critical Review of Wind Power Forecasting Methods—Past, Present and Future," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-24, July.
    8. Edelmann, Dominic & Móri, Tamás F. & Székely, Gábor J., 2021. "On relationships between the Pearson and the distance correlation coefficients," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    9. Ti, Zilong & Deng, Xiao Wei & Zhang, Mingming, 2021. "Artificial Neural Networks based wake model for power prediction of wind farm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 618-631.
    10. Wadim Strielkowski & Lubomír Civín & Elena Tarkhanova & Manuela Tvaronavičienė & Yelena Petrenko, 2021. "Renewable Energy in the Sustainable Development of Electrical Power Sector: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-24, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdulelah Alkesaiberi & Fouzi Harrou & Ying Sun, 2022. "Efficient Wind Power Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods: A Comparative Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Zhao, Beizhen & He, Xin & Ran, Shaolin & Zhang, Yong & Cheng, Cheng, 2024. "Spatial correlation learning based on graph neural network for medium-term wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    3. Guo, Nai-Zhi & Shi, Ke-Zhong & Li, Bo & Qi, Liang-Wen & Wu, Hong-Hui & Zhang, Zi-Liang & Xu, Jian-Zhong, 2022. "A physics-inspired neural network model for short-term wind power prediction considering wake effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    4. Yang, Mao & Wang, Da & Zhang, Wei, 2023. "A short-term wind power prediction method based on dynamic and static feature fusion mining," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    5. Xiaohan Huang & Aihua Jiang, 2022. "Wind Power Generation Forecast Based on Multi-Step Informer Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-17, September.
    6. Sobolewski, Robert Adam & Tchakorom, Médane & Couturier, Raphaël, 2023. "Gradient boosting-based approach for short- and medium-term wind turbine output power prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 142-160.
    7. Kübra Tümay Ateş, 2023. "Estimation of Short-Term Power of Wind Turbines Using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Swarm Intelligence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-20, September.
    8. Xu, Xuefang & Hu, Shiting & Shi, Peiming & Shao, Huaishuang & Li, Ruixiong & Li, Zhi, 2023. "Natural phase space reconstruction-based broad learning system for short-term wind speed prediction: Case studies of an offshore wind farm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    9. Hossam Fraihat & Amneh A. Almbaideen & Abdullah Al-Odienat & Bassam Al-Naami & Roberto De Fazio & Paolo Visconti, 2022. "Solar Radiation Forecasting by Pearson Correlation Using LSTM Neural Network and ANFIS Method: Application in the West-Central Jordan," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-24, March.
    10. Adam Krechowicz & Maria Krechowicz & Katarzyna Poczeta, 2022. "Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-41, December.
    11. Baggio, Roberta & Muzy, Jean-François, 2024. "Improving probabilistic wind speed forecasting using M-Rice distribution and spatial data integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    12. Liu, Chenyu & Zhang, Xuemin & Mei, Shengwei & Zhou, Qingyu & Fan, Hang, 2023. "Series-wise attention network for wind power forecasting considering temporal lag of numerical weather prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    13. Yang, Mao & Wang, Da & Zhang, Wei, 2024. "A novel ultra short-term wind power prediction model based on double model coordination switching mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    14. Jingtao Huang & Gang Niu & Haiping Guan & Shuzhong Song, 2023. "Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on LSTM with Loss Shrinkage Adam," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-13, April.
    15. Kirchner-Bossi, Nicolas & Kathari, Gabriel & Porté-Agel, Fernando, 2024. "A hybrid physics-based and data-driven model for intra-day and day-ahead wind power forecasting considering a drastically expanded predictor search space," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 367(C).
    16. Paweł Piotrowski & Inajara Rutyna & Dariusz Baczyński & Marcin Kopyt, 2022. "Evaluation Metrics for Wind Power Forecasts: A Comprehensive Review and Statistical Analysis of Errors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-38, December.
    17. Yingya Zhou & Linwei Ma & Weidou Ni & Colin Yu, 2023. "Data Enrichment as a Method of Data Preprocessing to Enhance Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-18, February.
    18. Li, Min & Yang, Yi & He, Zhaoshuang & Guo, Xinbo & Zhang, Ruisheng & Huang, Bingqing, 2023. "A wind speed forecasting model based on multi-objective algorithm and interpretability learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    19. Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Feng, Ziming, 2021. "Short-term offshore wind speed forecast by seasonal ARIMA - A comparison against GRU and LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    20. Omoyele, Olalekan & Hoffmann, Maximilian & Koivisto, Matti & Larrañeta, Miguel & Weinand, Jann Michael & Linßen, Jochen & Stolten, Detlef, 2024. "Increasing the resolution of solar and wind time series for energy system modeling: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:1370-:d:1049515. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.