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Analyzing the Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Risk Posed by a Mature Fusion Technology and Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Diesendorf

    (Environment & Society Group, School of Humanities & Languages, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia)

  • David Roser

    (Water Research Centre, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia)

  • Haydn Washington

    (Earth and Sustainability Science Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia)

Abstract

Nuclear fusion is widely promoted as the ultimate environmentally friendly solution to the world’s energy demands. However, the medium/long-term nuclear weapons proliferation risks from a hypothetical fusion economy are rarely considered. Using risk assessment tools, this paper undertakes a trial scoping of proliferation hazards arising from fusion energy technologies, focused on the implications of a global ‘Mature Fusion Economy’ (MFE). In the medium term, an MFE could (1) facilitate construction of large, efficient, and reliable nuclear arsenals by producing tritium and the fissile materials Plutonium-239 and Uranium-233; and (2) erode the barriers constraining nuclear weapons acquisition by facilitating the spread of nuclear knowledge, technologies, and materials. Given the potential scale of a global MFE, management via monitoring of proliferation and diplomacy could become unworkable. Therefore, policy development must include independent and comprehensive expert and informed community assessment of such fusion-enhanced risks, transparent oversight by the nuclear disarmament community, and systematic analysis of the issues raised in this paper and their implications for fusion into the very long-term future.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Diesendorf & David Roser & Haydn Washington, 2023. "Analyzing the Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Risk Posed by a Mature Fusion Technology and Economy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:1123-:d:1041398
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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