IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i21p7356-d1271561.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Carbon Emission Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Industrial Parks: A Scenario Analysis Based on the Integration of the LEAP Model with LMDI Decomposition

Author

Listed:
  • Dawei Feng

    (China Energy Engineering Group Jiangsu Power Design Institute Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210012, China)

  • Wenchao Xu

    (China Energy Engineering Group Jiangsu Power Design Institute Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210012, China)

  • Xinyu Gao

    (Institute of the Building Environment & Sustainability Technology, School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China)

  • Yun Yang

    (China Energy Engineering Group Jiangsu Power Design Institute Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210012, China)

  • Shirui Feng

    (China Energy Engineering Group Jiangsu Power Design Institute Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210012, China)

  • Xiaohu Yang

    (Institute of the Building Environment & Sustainability Technology, School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China)

  • Hailong Li

    (School of Business Society and Engineering, Mälardalen University, 721 23 Västerås, Sweden)

Abstract

Global climate change imposes significant challenges on the ecological environment and human sustainability. Industrial parks, in line with the national climate change mitigation strategy, are key targets for low-carbon revolution within the industrial sector. To predict the carbon emission of industrial parks and formulate the strategic path of emission reduction, this paper amalgamates the benefits of the “top-down” and “bottom-up” prediction methodologies, incorporating the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method and long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model, and integrates the Tapio decoupling theory to predict the carbon emissions of an industrial park cluster of an economic development zone in Yancheng from 2020 to 2035 under baseline (BAS) and low-carbon scenarios (LC1, LC2, and LC3). The findings suggest that, in comparison to the BAS scenario, the carbon emissions in the LC1, LC2, and LC3 scenarios decreased by 30.4%, 38.4%, and 46.2%, respectively, with LC3 being the most suitable pathway for the park’s development. Finally, the paper explores carbon emission sources, and analyzes emission reduction potential and optimization measures of the energy structure, thus providing a reference for the formulation of emission reduction strategies for industrial parks.

Suggested Citation

  • Dawei Feng & Wenchao Xu & Xinyu Gao & Yun Yang & Shirui Feng & Xiaohu Yang & Hailong Li, 2023. "Carbon Emission Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Industrial Parks: A Scenario Analysis Based on the Integration of the LEAP Model with LMDI Decomposition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-15, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:21:p:7356-:d:1271561
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/21/7356/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/21/7356/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cai, Yongxia & Woollacott, Jared & Beach, Robert H. & Rafelski, Lauren E. & Ramig, Christopher & Shelby, Michael, 2023. "Insights from adding transportation sector detail into an economy-wide model: The case of the ADAGE CGE model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    2. Patryk Ratomski & Małgorzata Hawrot-Paw & Adam Koniuszy & Wojciech Golimowski & Andrzej Kwaśnica & Damian Marcinkowski, 2023. "Indicators of Engine Performance Powered by a Biofuel Blend Produced from Microalgal Biomass: A Step towards the Decarbonization of Transport," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Caifen Xu & Yu Zhang & Yangmeina Yang & Huiying Gao, 2023. "Carbon Peak Scenario Simulation of Manufacturing Carbon Emissions in Northeast China: Perspective of Structure Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-31, July.
    4. Liangchao Huang & Zhengmeng Hou & Yanli Fang & Jianhua Liu & Tianle Shi, 2023. "Evolution of CCUS Technologies Using LDA Topic Model and Derwent Patent Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-14, March.
    5. Shin, Ho-Chul & Park, Jin-Won & Kim, Ho-Seok & Shin, Eui-Soon, 2005. "Environmental and economic assessment of landfill gas electricity generation in Korea using LEAP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1261-1270, July.
    6. Wenhan Fan & Jiaqi Zhang & Jianliang Zhou & Chao Li & Jinxin Hu & Feixiang Hu & Zhibo Nie, 2023. "LCA and Scenario Analysis of Building Carbon Emission Reduction: The Influencing Factors of the Carbon Emission of a Photovoltaic Curtain Wall," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-21, June.
    7. Effrosyni Giama & Elli Kyriaki & Athanasios Papaevaggelou & Agis Papadopoulos, 2023. "Energy and Environmental Analysis of Renewable Energy Systems Focused on Biomass Technologies for Residential Applications: The Life Cycle Energy Analysis Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-22, May.
    8. George Ekonomou & George Halkos, 2023. "Exploring the Impact of Economic Growth on the Environment: An Overview of Trends and Developments," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-19, June.
    9. Zhu, Dafeng & Yang, Bo & Liu, Yuxiang & Wang, Zhaojian & Ma, Kai & Guan, Xinping, 2022. "Energy management based on multi-agent deep reinforcement learning for a multi-energy industrial park," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    10. Xin Zou & Renfeng Wang & Guohui Hu & Zhuang Rong & Jiaxuan Li, 2022. "CO 2 Emissions Forecast and Emissions Peak Analysis in Shanxi Province, China: An Application of the LEAP Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, January.
    11. Wei, Xintong & Qiu, Rui & Liang, Yongtu & Liao, Qi & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Xue, Jinjun & Zhang, Haoran, 2022. "Roadmap to carbon emissions neutral industrial parks: Energy, economic and environmental analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    12. Feng, Jing-Chun & Yan, Jinyue & Yu, Zhi & Zeng, Xuelan & Xu, Weijia, 2018. "Case study of an industrial park toward zero carbon emission," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 65-78.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yuheng Sun & Zhengyuan Feng & Fangtao Liu & Yuanhang Li & Jun Ning & Hang Fu & Shoujuan Tang & Guangxin Liu & Yang Li & Lei Shi, 2024. "Carbon Neutrality Pathways for Industrial Parks and Reduction Potential Based on Text Analysis and Empirical Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Qianting Zhu & Pengcheng Xiong & Wenwu Tang, 2025. "Simulation Analysis of Micro-Agent Innovation’s Impact on Regional Economy, Energy, and Carbon Emissions: A Case Study of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Using the AGIO Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-26, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiaying Wang & Chunguang Lu & Shuai Zhang & Huajiang Yan & Changsen Feng, 2023. "Optimal Energy Management Strategy of Clustered Industry Factories Considering Carbon Trading and Supply Chain Coupling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Xinyu Gao & Ze Li & Jiabang Yu & Jiayi Gao & Xiaohu Yang & Bengt Sundén, 2023. "Thermo-Economic Performance Analysis of Modified Latent Heat Storage System for Residential Heating," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Zhang, Anshan & Wang, Feiliang & Li, Huanyu & Pang, Bo & Yang, Jian, 2024. "Carbon emissions accounting and estimation of carbon reduction potential in the operation phase of residential areas based on digital twin," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 376(PB).
    4. Li, Ke & Yang, Rui & He, Xuanfang, 2024. "Realizing low-carbon development of industrial parks in China: Model construction and its application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    5. Yong-Jae Lee & Sung-Eun Park & Seong-Yeob Lee, 2024. "Machine Learning-Driven Topic Modeling and Network Analysis to Uncover Shared Knowledge Networks for Sustainable Korea–Japan Intangible Cultural Heritage Cooperation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-38, December.
    6. Meijing Liu & Changqi Liu & Hao Xie & Zhonghui Zhao & Chong Zhu & Yangang Lu & Changsheng Bu, 2023. "Analysis of the Impact of Photovoltaic Curtain Walls Replacing Glass Curtain Walls on the Whole Life Cycle Carbon Emission of Public Buildings Based on BIM Modeling Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-21, October.
    7. Zhang, Zhonglian & Yang, Xiaohui & Li, Moxuan & Deng, Fuwei & Xiao, Riying & Mei, Linghao & Hu, Zecheng, 2023. "Optimal configuration of improved dynamic carbon neutral energy systems based on hybrid energy storage and market incentives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    8. Li, Shuoshuo & Liu, Yaobin & Wei, Guoen & Bi, Mo & He, Bao-Jie, 2024. "Carbon surplus or carbon deficit under land use transformation in China?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    9. Perwez, Usama & Sohail, Ahmed & Hassan, Syed Fahad & Zia, Usman, 2015. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2423-2435.
    10. Kale, Rajesh V. & Pohekar, Sanjay D., 2014. "Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-13.
    11. Halkos, George & Aslanidis, Panagiotis-Stavros, 2024. "Reviewing environmental aspects under the scope of ESG," MPRA Paper 120298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Beata Piotrowska & Daniel Słyś, 2023. "Analysis of the Life Cycle Cost of a Heat Recovery System from Greywater Using a Vertical “Tube-in-Tube” Heat Exchanger: Case Study of Poland," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, August.
    13. Zeng, Sheng & Su, Bin & Zhang, Minglong & Gao, Yuan & Liu, Jun & Luo, Song & Tao, Qingmei, 2021. "Analysis and forecast of China's energy consumption structure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    14. Nino Stameski & Magdalena Radulescu & Vera Zelenović & Vera Mirović & Branimir Kalaš & Nataša Pavlović, 2024. "Investigating the Effects of Environmental Tax Revenues on Economic Development: The Case of Nordic Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-17, September.
    15. Yunlei Lin & Yuan Zhou, 2023. "Identification of Hydrogen-Energy-Related Emerging Technologies Based on Text Mining," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, December.
    16. Xiong, Kang & Hu, Weihao & Cao, Di & Li, Sichen & Zhang, Guozhou & Liu, Wen & Huang, Qi & Chen, Zhe, 2023. "Coordinated energy management strategy for multi-energy hub with thermo-electrochemical effect based power-to-ammonia: A multi-agent deep reinforcement learning enabled approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 216-232.
    17. Xingyun Yan & Lingyu Wang & Mingzhu Fang & Jie Hu, 2022. "How Can Industrial Parks Achieve Carbon Neutrality? Literature Review and Research Prospect Based on the CiteSpace Knowledge Map," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-29, December.
    18. Du, Weijian & Li, Mengjie, 2023. "Opening the black box of environmental governance: Environmental target constraints and industrial firm pollution reduction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    19. Xue, Ruoyu & Wang, Shanshan & Long, Wenqi & Gao, Gengyu & Liu, Donghui & Zhang, Ruiqin, 2021. "Uncovering GHG emission characteristics of industrial parks in Central China via emission inventory and cluster analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    20. Han, Yongming & Cao, Lian & Guo, Qing & Geng, Zhiqiang & Yang, Weiyang & Fan, Jinzhen & Liu, Min, 2024. "Economy and carbon dioxide emissions effects of energy structures in China: Evidence based on a novel AHP-SBMDEA model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:21:p:7356-:d:1271561. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.