IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i1p499-d1022769.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-Series Well Performance Prediction Based on Convolutional and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Model

Author

Listed:
  • Junqiang Wang

    (Jinan Bestune Times Power Technology Co., Ltd., Jinan 250000, China)

  • Xiaolong Qiang

    (The Second Gas Production Plant of PetroChina Changqing Oilfield Company, Yulin 719000, China)

  • Zhengcheng Ren

    (The Second Gas Production Plant of PetroChina Changqing Oilfield Company, Yulin 719000, China)

  • Hongbo Wang

    (The Second Gas Production Plant of PetroChina Changqing Oilfield Company, Yulin 719000, China)

  • Yongbo Wang

    (The Second Gas Production Plant of PetroChina Changqing Oilfield Company, Yulin 719000, China)

  • Shuoliang Wang

    (School of Energy, Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

In the past, reservoir engineers used numerical simulation or reservoir engineering methods to predict oil production, and the accuracy of prediction depended more on the engineers’ own experience. With the development of data science, a new trend has arisen to use deep learning to predict oil production from the perspective of data. In this study, a hybrid forecasting model (CNN-LSTM) based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is proposed and used to predict the production of fractured horizontal wells in volcanic reservoirs. The model solves the limitation of traditional methods that rely on personal experience. First, the production constraints and production data are used to form a feature space, and the abstract semantics of the feature time series are extracted through convolutional neural network, then the LSTM neural network is used to predict the time series. The certain hyperparameters of the whole model are optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (PSO). In order to estimate the model, some production dynamics from the Xinjiang oilfield of China are used for comparative analysis. The experimental results show that the CNN-LSTM model is superior to traditional neural networks and conventional decline curves.

Suggested Citation

  • Junqiang Wang & Xiaolong Qiang & Zhengcheng Ren & Hongbo Wang & Yongbo Wang & Shuoliang Wang, 2023. "Time-Series Well Performance Prediction Based on Convolutional and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:499-:d:1022769
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/1/499/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/1/499/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Han, Shuang & Qiao, Yan-hui & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yong-qian & Li, Li & Wang, Zheng, 2019. "Mid-to-long term wind and photovoltaic power generation prediction based on copula function and long short term memory network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 181-191.
    2. Niknam, Taher, 2010. "A new fuzzy adaptive hybrid particle swarm optimization algorithm for non-linear, non-smooth and non-convex economic dispatch problem," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 327-339, January.
    3. Qin, Yong & Li, Kun & Liang, Zhanhao & Lee, Brendan & Zhang, Fuyong & Gu, Yongcheng & Zhang, Lei & Wu, Fengzhi & Rodriguez, Dragan, 2019. "Hybrid forecasting model based on long short term memory network and deep learning neural network for wind signal," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 262-272.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nathan Oaks Farrar & Mohd Hasan Ali & Dipankar Dasgupta, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Grid Connected Wind Turbine Control Systems: A Comprehensive Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-25, February.
    2. Wang, Jun & Cao, Junxing & Yuan, Shan & Cheng, Ming, 2021. "Short-term forecasting of natural gas prices by using a novel hybrid method based on a combination of the CEEMDAN-SE-and the PSO-ALS-optimized GRU network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    3. Bingchun Liu & Shijie Zhao & Xiaogang Yu & Lei Zhang & Qingshan Wang, 2020. "A Novel Deep Learning Approach for Wind Power Forecasting Based on WD-LSTM Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Zucatelli, P.J. & Nascimento, E.G.S. & Santos, A.Á.B. & Arce, A.M.G. & Moreira, D.M., 2021. "An investigation on deep learning and wavelet transform to nowcast wind power and wind power ramp: A case study in Brazil and Uruguay," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    5. Jian Zhao & Bochen Zhang & Xiwang Guo & Liang Qi & Zhiwu Li, 2022. "Self-Adapting Spherical Search Algorithm with Differential Evolution for Global Optimization," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-31, November.
    6. Zhang, Jiao & Li, Youping & Liu, Chunqiong & Wu, Bo & Shi, Kai, 2022. "A study of cross-correlations between PM2.5 and O3 based on Copula and Multifractal methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 589(C).
    7. Bhowmik, Chiranjib & Bhowmik, Sumit & Ray, Amitava & Pandey, Krishna Murari, 2017. "Optimal green energy planning for sustainable development: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 796-813.
    8. Zhao, He & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Xiao, Zenan & Shi, Haoyuan & Li, Chengli & Tai, Yonghang, 2024. "Week-ahead hourly solar irradiation forecasting method based on ICEEMDAN and TimesNet networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    9. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    10. Abdulelah Alkesaiberi & Fouzi Harrou & Ying Sun, 2022. "Efficient Wind Power Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods: A Comparative Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-24, March.
    11. Glotić, Arnel & Zamuda, Aleš, 2015. "Short-term combined economic and emission hydrothermal optimization by surrogate differential evolution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 42-56.
    12. Yu, Min & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Keke & Du, Ruoyun & Yu, Xiaoyu & Sun, Lijie & Wang, Feiran, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power point-interval forecasting based on double-layer decomposition and WOA-BiLSTM-Attention and considering weather classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    13. Goudarzi, Arman & Swanson, Andrew G. & Van Coller, John & Siano, Pierluigi, 2017. "Smart real-time scheduling of generating units in an electricity market considering environmental aspects and physical constraints of generators," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 667-696.
    14. Jianzhong Xu & Fu Yan & Kumchol Yun & Lifei Su & Fengshu Li & Jun Guan, 2019. "Noninferior Solution Grey Wolf Optimizer with an Independent Local Search Mechanism for Solving Economic Load Dispatch Problems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-26, June.
    15. Ebrahim Farjah & Mosayeb Bornapour & Taher Niknam & Bahman Bahmanifirouzi, 2012. "Placement of Combined Heat, Power and Hydrogen Production Fuel Cell Power Plants in a Distribution Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-25, March.
    16. Dong, Lianxin & Fan, Shuai & Wang, Zhihua & Xiao, Jucheng & Zhou, Huan & Li, Zuyi & He, Guangyu, 2021. "An adaptive decentralized economic dispatch method for virtual power plant," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    17. Hu, Huanling & Wang, Lin & Lv, Sheng-Xiang, 2020. "Forecasting energy consumption and wind power generation using deep echo state network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 598-613.
    18. Tavakol Aghaei, Vahid & Ağababaoğlu, Arda & Bawo, Biram & Naseradinmousavi, Peiman & Yıldırım, Sinan & Yeşilyurt, Serhat & Onat, Ahmet, 2023. "Energy optimization of wind turbines via a neural control policy based on reinforcement learning Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    19. Erickson Diogo Pereira Puchta & Priscilla Bassetto & Lucas Henrique Biuk & Marco Antônio Itaborahy Filho & Attilio Converti & Mauricio dos Santos Kaster & Hugo Valadares Siqueira, 2021. "Swarm-Inspired Algorithms to Optimize a Nonlinear Gaussian Adaptive PID Controller," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
    20. Qiao, Yanhui & Han, Shuang & Zhang, Yajie & Liu, Yongqian & Yan, Jie, 2024. "A multivariable wind turbine power curve modeling method considering segment control differences and short-time self-dependence," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:499-:d:1022769. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.