IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i15p5659-d1204272.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal Extreme Random Forest Ensemble for Active Distribution Network Forecasting-Aided State Estimation Based on Maximum Average Energy Concentration VMD State Decomposition

Author

Listed:
  • Yue Yu

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China)

  • Jiahui Guo

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China)

  • Zhaoyang Jin

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China)

Abstract

As the penetration rate of distributed generators (DG) in active distribution networks (ADNs) gradually increases, it is necessary to accurately estimate the operating state of the ADNs to ensure their safe and stable operation. However, the high randomness and volatility of distributed generator output and active loads have increased the difficulty of state estimation. To solve this problem, a method is proposed for forecasting-aided state estimation (FASE) in ADNs, which integrates the optimal extreme random forest based on the maximum average energy concentration (MAEC) and variable mode decomposition (VMD) of states. Firstly, a parameter optimization model based on MAEC is constructed to decompose the state variables of the ADNs into a set of intrinsic mode components using VMD. Then, strongly correlated weather and date features in ADNs state prediction are selected using the multivariate rapid maximum information coefficient (RapidMIC) based on Schmidt orthogonal decomposition. Finally, by combining the set of intrinsic mode functions of the ADNs state, calendar rules, and weather features, an ensemble FASE method based on the extreme random tree (ERT) ensemble for the ADNs based on cubature particle filtering (CPF) is developed. An optimization model based on mean absolute error and root mean square error is established to obtain the optimal integration strategy and final estimation results. Simulation verification is performed on the IEEE 118-bus standard distribution system. The results show that the proposed method achieves higher accuracy compared to other estimation methods, with root mean square errors of 1.4902 × 10 −4 for voltage magnitude and 4.8915 × 10 −3 for phase angle.

Suggested Citation

  • Yue Yu & Jiahui Guo & Zhaoyang Jin, 2023. "Optimal Extreme Random Forest Ensemble for Active Distribution Network Forecasting-Aided State Estimation Based on Maximum Average Energy Concentration VMD State Decomposition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-25, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:15:p:5659-:d:1204272
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/15/5659/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/15/5659/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Shuai & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan & Zhao, Weigang, 2021. "A novel combined model for wind speed prediction – Combination of linear model, shallow neural networks, and deep learning approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    2. Khan, Waqas & Walker, Shalika & Zeiler, Wim, 2022. "Improved solar photovoltaic energy generation forecast using deep learning-based ensemble stacking approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    3. Chen, Xuejun & Yang, Yongming & Cui, Zhixin & Shen, Jun, 2019. "Vibration fault diagnosis of wind turbines based on variational mode decomposition and energy entropy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1100-1109.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liang, Pengfei & Tian, Jiaye & Wang, Suiyan & Yuan, Xiaoming, 2024. "Multi-source information joint transfer diagnosis for rolling bearing with unknown faults via wavelet transform and an improved domain adaptation network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    2. Khan, Waqas & Somers, Ward & Walker, Shalika & de Bont, Kevin & Van der Velden, Joep & Zeiler, Wim, 2023. "Comparison of electric vehicle load forecasting across different spatial levels with incorporated uncertainty estimation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    3. Zheng, Lingwei & Su, Ran & Sun, Xinyu & Guo, Siqi, 2023. "Historical PV-output characteristic extraction based weather-type classification strategy and its forecasting method for the day-ahead prediction of PV output," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    4. Gupta, Priya & Singh, Rhythm, 2023. "Combining simple and less time complex ML models with multivariate empirical mode decomposition to obtain accurate GHI forecast," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    5. Raeesi, Ramin & Sahebjamnia, Navid & Mansouri, S. Afshin, 2023. "The synergistic effect of operational research and big data analytics in greening container terminal operations: A review and future directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 943-973.
    6. Shujie Yang & Peikun Yang & Hao Yu & Jing Bai & Wuwei Feng & Yuxiang Su & Yulin Si, 2022. "A 2DCNN-RF Model for Offshore Wind Turbine High-Speed Bearing-Fault Diagnosis under Noisy Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-16, May.
    7. Yifei Chen & Zhihan Fu, 2023. "Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting of the Energy Consumed by the Residential and Commercial Sectors in the United States Based on a Hybrid CNN-BiLSTM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, January.
    8. Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Xinsong & Zhang, Lifang & Liu, Zhenkun & Wei, Danxiang, 2022. "The influence of international oil prices on the exchange rates of oil exporting countries: Based on the hybrid copula function," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Xiao, Yulong & Zou, Chongzhe & Chi, Hetian & Fang, Rengcun, 2023. "Boosted GRU model for short-term forecasting of wind power with feature-weighted principal component analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    10. Vladimir Franki & Darin Majnarić & Alfredo Višković, 2023. "A Comprehensive Review of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Companies in the Power Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-35, January.
    11. Wang, Jianzhou & Wang, Shuai & Li, Zhiwu, 2021. "Wind speed deterministic forecasting and probabilistic interval forecasting approach based on deep learning, modified tunicate swarm algorithm, and quantile regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1246-1261.
    12. Tian, Zhirui & Wang, Jiyang, 2023. "A wind speed prediction system based on new data preprocessing strategy and improved multi-objective optimizer," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    13. Rotaru Cătălin-Laurențiu & Timiş Diana & Grădinaru Giani-Ionel, 2023. "Efficient Capture of Solar Energy in Romania: Approach in Territorial Profile Using Predictive Statistical Techniques," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 1519-1533, July.
    14. Wang, Zhenya & Yao, Ligang & Cai, Yongwu & Zhang, Jun, 2020. "Mahalanobis semi-supervised mapping and beetle antennae search based support vector machine for wind turbine rolling bearings fault diagnosis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1312-1327.
    15. Beibei Hu & Yunhe Cheng, 2023. "Prediction of Regional Carbon Price in China Based on Secondary Decomposition and Nonlinear Error Correction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-22, May.
    16. Leijiao Ge & Tianshuo Du & Changlu Li & Yuanliang Li & Jun Yan & Muhammad Umer Rafiq, 2022. "Virtual Collection for Distributed Photovoltaic Data: Challenges, Methodologies, and Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-24, November.
    17. Su, Yunsheng & Shi, Luojie & Zhou, Kai & Bai, Guangxing & Wang, Zequn, 2024. "Knowledge-informed deep networks for robust fault diagnosis of rolling bearings," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    18. Zhang, Dongxue & Wang, Shuai & Liang, Yuqiu & Du, Zhiyuan, 2023. "A novel combined model for probabilistic load forecasting based on deep learning and improved optimizer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    19. Li, Ranran & Hu, Yucai & Heng, Jiani & Chen, Xueli, 2021. "A novel multiscale forecasting model for crude oil price time series," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    20. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Casillas-Pérez, David & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho, 2024. "Two-step deep learning framework with error compensation technique for short-term, half-hourly electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:15:p:5659-:d:1204272. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.