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Optimization Modelling of the Decarbonization Scenario of the Total Energy System of Kazakhstan until 2060

Author

Listed:
  • Nurkhat Zhakiyev

    (Department of Science and Innovation, Astana IT University LLP, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan)

  • Ayagoz Khamzina

    (Department of Science and Innovation, Astana IT University LLP, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan)

  • Svetlana Zhakiyeva

    (Department of Science and Innovation, Astana IT University LLP, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan
    Department of Mathematical and Computer Modeling, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana 010008, Kazakhstan)

  • Rocco De Miglio

    (Lead Architect of the Central Asia Caspian Energy System Model, Senior Energy Consultant, 10144 Torino, Italy)

  • Aidyn Bakdolotov

    (Department of Science and Innovation, Astana IT University LLP, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan
    “Economic Research Institute“ JSC, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan)

  • Carmelina Cosmi

    (National Research Council (CNR), Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis (IMAA), 85050 Tito Scalo, Italy)

Abstract

This research article provides a comprehensive scenario analysis of key structural changes in Kazakhstan’s fuel and energy complex subsectors until 2060, focusing on decarbonization efforts. The background places the issue of decarbonization in a broader context, considering the country’s vast size and sparse population. The study’s purpose involves analyzing the development of the climate agenda by comparing two scenarios: a “reference” scenario without decarbonization measures and a carbon neutrality scenario until 2060 (CN2060). A mathematical technical-economic model based on the TIMES paradigm (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) serves as the method to optimize and simulate Kazakhstan’s energy system. The main findings reveal sets of policies, standards, and legislative, economic, and political decisions that are required to achieve CN2060. Additionally, the integration of a low-carbon policy, sectoral and cross-cutting approaches, the impact of the coronavirus crisis, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and energy security issues receive a discussion. The article concludes with projected shares of generation and investment in renewable energy sources (RES) necessary for attaining CN2060. This work offers novel insights into challenges and opportunities for Kazakhstan’s transition to a low-carbon economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Nurkhat Zhakiyev & Ayagoz Khamzina & Svetlana Zhakiyeva & Rocco De Miglio & Aidyn Bakdolotov & Carmelina Cosmi, 2023. "Optimization Modelling of the Decarbonization Scenario of the Total Energy System of Kazakhstan until 2060," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:13:p:5142-:d:1186112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. KERAMIDAS Kimon & FOSSE Florian & DIAZ VAZQUEZ Ana & SCHADE Burkhard & TCHUNG-MING Stephane & WEITZEL Matthias & VANDYCK Toon & WOJTOWICZ Krzysztof, 2021. "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2020: A New Normal Beyond Covid-19," JRC Research Reports JRC123203, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Bernath, Christiane & Deac, Gerda & Sensfuß, Frank, 2021. "Impact of sector coupling on the market value of renewable energies – A model-based scenario analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    3. Di Leo, Senatro & Caramuta, Pietro & Curci, Paola & Cosmi, Carmelina, 2020. "Regression analysis for energy demand projection: An application to TIMES-Basilicata and TIMES-Italy energy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    4. Aiymgul Kerimray & Kanat Baigarin & Rocco De Miglio & Giancarlo Tosato, 2016. "Climate change mitigation scenarios and policies and measures: the case of Kazakhstan," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 332-352, April.
    5. Di Leo, Senatro & Pietrapertosa, Filomena & Salvia, Monica & Cosmi, Carmelina, 2021. "Contribution of the Basilicata region to decarbonisation of the energy system: results of a scenario analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Sajad Aliakbari Sani & Azadeh Maroufmashat & Frédéric Babonneau & Olivier Bahn & Erick Delage & Alain Haurie & Normand Mousseau & Kathleen Vaillancourt, 2022. "Energy Transition Pathways for Deep Decarbonization of the Greater Montreal Region: An Energy Optimization Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, May.
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