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Climate change mitigation scenarios and policies and measures: the case of Kazakhstan

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  • Aiymgul Kerimray
  • Kanat Baigarin
  • Rocco De Miglio
  • Giancarlo Tosato

Abstract

This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO 2 from combustion by about 85 MtCO 2 by 2030 -- 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO 2 not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO 2 by 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Aiymgul Kerimray & Kanat Baigarin & Rocco De Miglio & Giancarlo Tosato, 2016. "Climate change mitigation scenarios and policies and measures: the case of Kazakhstan," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 332-352, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:16:y:2016:i:3:p:332-352
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2014.1003525
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wei Wei & Yuanjun Zhu & Hao Li & Kebin Zhang & Baitian Wang & Xiaohui Yang & Zhongjie Shi, 2018. "Spatio-Temporal Reorganization of Cropland Development in Central Asia during the Post-Soviet Era: A Sustainable Implication in Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.
    2. Assembayeva, Makpal & Egerer, Jonas & Mendelevitch, Roman & Zhakiyev, Nurkhat, 2018. "A spatial electricity market model for the power system: The Kazakhstan case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 762-778.
    3. Yerkin G. Abdildin & Serik A. Nurkenov & Aiymgul Kerimray, 2021. "Analysis of Green Technology Development in Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 269-279.
    4. Nurlan Seisenbayev & Miriam Absalyamova & Alisher Alibekov & Woojin Lee, 2023. "Reactive Transport Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of CO 2 –Rock–Brine Interactions at Ebeity Reservoir, West Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-22, October.
    5. Makpal Assembayeva & Jonas Egerer & Roman Mendelevitch & Nurkhat Zhakiyev, 2017. "A Spatial Electricity Market Model for the Power System of Kazakhstan," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1659, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Nurkhat Zhakiyev & Ayagoz Khamzina & Svetlana Zhakiyeva & Rocco De Miglio & Aidyn Bakdolotov & Carmelina Cosmi, 2023. "Optimization Modelling of the Decarbonization Scenario of the Total Energy System of Kazakhstan until 2060," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-14, July.
    7. Sergey V. Pashkov & Eduard Z. Imashev & Gaukhar K. Baubekova & Kulyash D. Kaimuldinova & Yerkin A. Tokpanov & Gulshat Z. Nurgaliyeva & Gaini K. Baimukasheva & Rabiga N. Kenzhebay & Soltanbek K. Kassen, 2024. "Ecological–Economical and Ethno-Cultural Determinants of the Development of Organic Farming in Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-19, May.
    8. Athanasios Dagoumas & Nikolaos Koltsaklis, 2020. "Zonal Pricing in Kazakhstan Power System with a Unit Commitment Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 24-36.

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