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Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Multiscale-Model-Based Machine Learning Techniques

Author

Listed:
  • Manel Marweni

    (Laboratory of Automatic Electrical Systems and Environment, National Engineering School of Monastir, University of Monastir, Monastir 5000, Tunisia)

  • Mansour Hajji

    (Research Unit Advanced Materials and Nanotechnologies, Higher Institute of Applied Sciences and Technology of Kasserine, Kairouan University, Kasserine 1200, Tunisia)

  • Majdi Mansouri

    (Electrical and Computer Engineering Program, Texas A&M University at Qatar, Doha 23874, Qatar)

  • Mohamed Fouazi Mimouni

    (Laboratory of Automatic Electrical Systems and Environment, National Engineering School of Monastir, University of Monastir, Monastir 5000, Tunisia)

Abstract

The majority of energy sources being used today are traditional types. These sources are limited in nature and quantity. Additionally, they are continuously diminishing as global energy consumption increases as a result of population growth and industrial expansion. Their compensation is made from clean energy and renewable energy. Renewable energy is strongly dependent on climatic conditions; therefore, an aspect of energy management is needed, which is essential in distribution systems, because it enables us to calculate the precise energy used by the load as well as by its many components. It also helps us understand how much energy is required and its origin. The energy management aspect contains two main phases: forecasting and optimization. In this study, we are focused on the forecasting level using intelligent machine learning (ML) techniques. To ensure better energy management, it is very important to predict the production of renewable energy over a wide time period. In our work, several cases are proposed in order to predict the temperature, the irradiance, and the power produced by a PV system. The proposed approach is validated by an experimental procedure and a real database for a PV system. The big data from the sensors are noisy, which pose a major problem for forecasting. To reduce the impact of noise, we applied the multiscale strategy. To evaluate this strategy, we used different performance criteria, such as mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), nRMSE and the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ). The obtained experimental results show good performance with lower error. Indeed, they achieved an error for nRMSE criteria between 0.01 and 0.37.

Suggested Citation

  • Manel Marweni & Mansour Hajji & Majdi Mansouri & Mohamed Fouazi Mimouni, 2023. "Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Multiscale-Model-Based Machine Learning Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-16, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:12:p:4696-:d:1170642
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mansouri, Majdi & Hajji, Mansour & Trabelsi, Mohamed & Harkat, Mohamed Faouzi & Al-khazraji, Ayman & Livera, Andreas & Nounou, Hazem & Nounou, Mohamed, 2018. "An effective statistical fault detection technique for grid connected photovoltaic systems based on an improved generalized likelihood ratio test," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 842-856.
    2. Amith Khandakar & Muhammad E. H. Chowdhury & Monzure- Khoda Kazi & Kamel Benhmed & Farid Touati & Mohammed Al-Hitmi & Antonio Jr S. P. Gonzales, 2019. "Machine Learning Based Photovoltaics (PV) Power Prediction Using Different Environmental Parameters of Qatar," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Chiou-Jye Huang & Ping-Huan Kuo, 2018. "A Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Model by Using Artificial Neural Networks with Stochastic Optimization for Renewable Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, October.
    4. Zou, Hui, 2006. "The Adaptive Lasso and Its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1418-1429, December.
    5. Friedman, Jerome H. & Hastie, Trevor & Tibshirani, Rob, 2010. "Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i01).
    6. Dhibi, Khaled & Mansouri, Majdi & Bouzrara, Kais & Nounou, Hazem & Nounou, Mohamed, 2022. "Reduced neural network based ensemble approach for fault detection and diagnosis of wind energy converter systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 778-787.
    7. Amal Hichri & Mansour Hajji & Majdi Mansouri & Kamaleldin Abodayeh & Kais Bouzrara & Hazem Nounou & Mohamed Nounou, 2022. "Genetic-Algorithm-Based Neural Network for Fault Detection and Diagnosis: Application to Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-14, August.
    8. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A High Precision Artificial Neural Networks Model for Short-Term Energy Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xin Ren & Yimei Wang & Zhi Cao & Fuhao Chen & Yujia Li & Jie Yan, 2023. "Feature Transfer and Rapid Adaptation for Few-Shot Solar Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-13, August.

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