IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i11p4290-d1154340.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Calibration of GFS Solar Irradiation Forecasts: A Case Study in Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Sergiu-Mihai Hategan

    (Faculty of Physics, West University of Timisoara, V. Parvan 4, 300223 Timisoara, Romania)

  • Nicoleta Stefu

    (Faculty of Physics, West University of Timisoara, V. Parvan 4, 300223 Timisoara, Romania)

  • Marius Paulescu

    (Faculty of Physics, West University of Timisoara, V. Parvan 4, 300223 Timisoara, Romania)

Abstract

Models based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) are widely used for the day-ahead forecast of solar resources. This study is focused on the calibration of the hourly global solar irradiation forecasts provided by the Global Forecast System (GFS), a model from the NWP class. Since the evaluation of GFS raw forecasts sometimes shows a high degree of uncertainty (the relative error exceeding 100%), a procedure for reducing the errors is needed as a prerequisite for engineering applications. In this study, a deep analysis of the error sources in relation to the state of the atmosphere is reported. Of special note is the use of sky imagery in the identification process. Generally, it has been found that the largest errors are determined by the underestimation of cloud coverage. For calibration, a new ensemble forecast is proposed. It combines two machine learning approaches, Support Vector Regression and Multi-Layer Perceptron. In contrast to a typical calibration, the objective function is constructed based on the absolute error instead of the traditional root mean squared error. In terms of normalized root mean squared error, the calibration roughly reduces the uncertainty in hourly global solar irradiation by 16%. The study was conducted with high-quality ground-measured data from the Solar Platform of the West University of Timisoara, Romania. To ensure high accessibility, all the parameters required to run the proposed calibration procedures are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergiu-Mihai Hategan & Nicoleta Stefu & Marius Paulescu, 2023. "Calibration of GFS Solar Irradiation Forecasts: A Case Study in Romania," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-11, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:11:p:4290-:d:1154340
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/11/4290/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/11/4290/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahmed Mazin Majid AL-Qaysi & Altug Bozkurt & Yavuz Ates, 2023. "Load Forecasting Based on Genetic Algorithm–Artificial Neural Network-Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems: A Case Study in Iraq," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Nonthawat Khortsriwong & Promphak Boonraksa & Terapong Boonraksa & Thipwan Fangsuwannarak & Asada Boonsrirat & Watcharakorn Pinthurat & Boonruang Marungsri, 2023. "Performance of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting PV Power Generation: A Case Study on a 1.5 MWp Floating PV Power Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-21, February.
    3. Paulescu, Marius & Paulescu, Eugenia, 2019. "Short-term forecasting of solar irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 985-994.
    4. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi, 2023. "Calibration of deterministic NWP forecasts and its impact on verification," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 981-991.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weyll, Arthur Lúcide Cotta & Kitagawa, Yasmin Kaore Lago & Araujo, Mirella Lima Saraiva & Ramos, Diogo Nunes da Silva & Lima, Francisco José Lopes de & Santos, Thalyta Soares dos & Jacondino, William , 2024. "Medium-term forecasting of global horizontal solar radiation in Brazil using machine learning-based methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mayer, Martin János & Yang, Dazhi & Szintai, Balázs, 2023. "Comparing global and regional downscaled NWP models for irradiance and photovoltaic power forecasting: ECMWF versus AROME," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    2. Isaac Gallardo & Daniel Amor & Álvaro Gutiérrez, 2023. "Recent Trends in Real-Time Photovoltaic Prediction Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Sergiu-Mihai Hategan & Nicoleta Stefu & Marius Paulescu, 2023. "An Ensemble Approach for Intra-Hour Forecasting of Solar Resource," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-12, September.
    4. Ming Meng & Chenge Song, 2020. "Daily Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting Model Based on Random Forest Algorithm for North China in Winter," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-17, March.
    5. Yang, Dazhi & Gu, Yizhan & Mayer, Martin János & Gueymard, Christian A. & Wang, Wenting & Kleissl, Jan & Li, Mengying & Chu, Yinghao & Bright, Jamie M., 2024. "Regime-dependent 1-min irradiance separation model with climatology clustering," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    6. Fangzong Wang & Zuhaib Nishtar, 2024. "Real-Time Load Forecasting and Adaptive Control in Smart Grids Using a Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-24, May.
    7. Anh Ngoc-Lan Huynh & Ravinesh C. Deo & Duc-Anh An-Vo & Mumtaz Ali & Nawin Raj & Shahab Abdulla, 2020. "Near Real-Time Global Solar Radiation Forecasting at Multiple Time-Step Horizons Using the Long Short-Term Memory Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-30, July.
    8. Rodríguez, Fermín & Martín, Fernando & Fontán, Luis & Galarza, Ainhoa, 2021. "Ensemble of machine learning and spatiotemporal parameters to forecast very short-term solar irradiation to compute photovoltaic generators’ output power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    9. Samu, Remember & Calais, Martina & Shafiullah, G.M. & Moghbel, Moayed & Shoeb, Md Asaduzzaman & Nouri, Bijan & Blum, Niklas, 2021. "Applications for solar irradiance nowcasting in the control of microgrids: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    10. Lanre Olatomiwa & Omowunmi Mary Longe & Toyeeb Adekunle Abd’Azeez & James Garba Ambafi & Kufre Esenowo Jack & Ahmad Abubakar Sadiq, 2023. "Optimal Planning and Deployment of Hybrid Renewable Energy to Rural Healthcare Facilities in Nigeria," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-24, October.
    11. Adam Krechowicz & Maria Krechowicz & Katarzyna Poczeta, 2022. "Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-41, December.
    12. Paulescu, Marius & Stefu, Nicoleta & Dughir, Ciprian & Sabadus, Andreea & Calinoiu, Delia & Badescu, Viorel, 2022. "A simple but accurate two-state model for nowcasting PV power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 322-330.
    13. Puah, Boon Keat & Chong, Lee Wai & Wong, Yee Wan & Begam, K.M. & Khan, Nafizah & Juman, Mohammed Ayoub & Rajkumar, Rajprasad Kumar, 2021. "A regression unsupervised incremental learning algorithm for solar irradiance prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 908-925.
    14. Hartmann, Bálint, 2020. "Comparing various solar irradiance categorization methods – A critique on robustness," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 661-671.
    15. Chu, Yinghao & Yang, Dazhi & Yu, Hanxin & Zhao, Xin & Li, Mengying, 2024. "Can end-to-end data-driven models outperform traditional semi-physical models in separating 1-min irradiance?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    16. Paulescu, Eugenia & Paulescu, Marius, 2021. "A new clear sky solar irradiance model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 2094-2103.
    17. Paulescu, Marius & Blaga, Robert & Dughir, Ciprian & Stefu, Nicoleta & Sabadus, Andreea & Calinoiu, Delia & Badescu, Viorel, 2023. "Intra-hour PV power forecasting based on sky imagery," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:11:p:4290-:d:1154340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.