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Research on Ultra-Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Real-Time Electricity Price and Window-Based XGBoost Model

Author

Listed:
  • Xin Zhao

    (Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company, Jinan 250022, China)

  • Qiushuang Li

    (Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company, Jinan 250022, China)

  • Wanlei Xue

    (Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company, Jinan 250022, China)

  • Yihang Zhao

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Huiru Zhao

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Sen Guo

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

Abstract

With the continuous development of new power systems, the load demand on the user side is becoming more and more diverse and random, which also brings difficulties in the accurate prediction of power load. Although the introduction of deep learning algorithms has improved the prediction accuracy to a certain extent, it also faces problems such as large data requirements and low computing efficiency. An ultra-short-term load forecasting method based on the windowed XGBoost model is proposed, which not only reduces the complexity of the model, but also helps the model to capture the autocorrelation effect of the forecast object. At the same time, the real-time electricity price is introduced into the model to improve its forecast accuracy. By simulating the load data of Singapore’s electricity market, it is proved that the proposed model has fewer errors than other deep learning algorithms, and the introduction of the real-time electricity price helps to improve the prediction accuracy of the model. Furthermore, the broad applicability of the proposed method is verified by a sensitivity analysis on data with different sample sizes.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin Zhao & Qiushuang Li & Wanlei Xue & Yihang Zhao & Huiru Zhao & Sen Guo, 2022. "Research on Ultra-Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Real-Time Electricity Price and Window-Based XGBoost Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-11, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:19:p:7367-:d:935571
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Fei & Chen, Peng & Zhen, Zhao & Yin, Rui & Cao, Chunmei & Zhang, Yagang & Duić, Neven, 2022. "Dynamic spatio-temporal correlation and hierarchical directed graph structure based ultra-short-term wind farm cluster power forecasting method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    2. Zhuola Zhang & Shiyuan Lin & Yingjin Ye & Zhao Xu & Yihang Zhao & Huiru Zhao & Jingqi Sun, 2022. "A Hybrid MCDM Model for Evaluating the Market-Oriented Business Regulatory Risk of Power Grid Enterprises Based on the Bayesian Best-Worst Method and MARCOS Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-17, April.
    3. Zhu, Jizhong & Dong, Hanjiang & Zheng, Weiye & Li, Shenglin & Huang, Yanting & Xi, Lei, 2022. "Review and prospect of data-driven techniques for load forecasting in integrated energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    4. Zhao, Zhenyu & Zhang, Yao & Yang, Yujia & Yuan, Shuguang, 2022. "Load forecasting via Grey Model-Least Squares Support Vector Machine model and spatial-temporal distribution of electric consumption intensity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Yihang & Zhou, Zhenxi & Zhang, Kaiwen & Huo, Yaotong & Sun, Dong & Zhao, Huiru & Sun, Jingqi & Guo, Sen, 2023. "Research on spillover effect between carbon market and electricity market: Evidence from Northern Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PF).
    2. Chao Zhang & Yihang Zhao & Huiru Zhao, 2022. "A Novel Hybrid Price Prediction Model for Multimodal Carbon Emission Trading Market Based on CEEMDAN Algorithm and Window-Based XGBoost Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-16, November.

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