IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i18p6690-d913535.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario Analysis of an Electric Power System in Colombia Considering the El Niño Phenomenon and the Inclusion of Renewable Energies

Author

Listed:
  • Juliana Restrepo-Trujillo

    (Departamento de Física y Matemática, Universidad Autónoma de Manizales, Manizales 170002, Colombia)

  • Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen

    (Departamento de Energética, Universidad Autónoma de Occidente, Cali 760043, Colombia)

  • Francy N. Jiménez-García

    (Departamento de Física y Matemática, Universidad Autónoma de Manizales, Manizales 170002, Colombia
    Departamento de Física y Química, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Manizales, Manizales 170003, Colombia)

  • Wilfredo C. Flores

    (Faculty of Engineering, Universidad Tecnológica Centroamericana, UNITEC, Tegucigalpa 11101, Honduras)

  • Harold R. Chamorro

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, KTH, Royal Institute of Technology, 114 28 Stockholm, Sweden)

Abstract

This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for Colombia that consider the El Niño phenomenon and the inclusion of renewable energies in the energy generation matrix for the period 2020–2035. A comparative analysis is presented between the results of the different scenarios proposed. The most relevant finding is the use of the reserve margin as an indicator of system reliability. A scenario which included 7214 MW of large-scale non-conventional renewable energy, 10,000 MW of distributed generation, and 12,240 MW of hydroelectric power was assumed, with a reserve margin of over 50%. Additionally, it was found that for the scenarios in which a generation capacity with non-conventional renewable energies of less than 10,000 MW in 2034 was assumed, the reserve margin of the system in the seasons of the El Niño phenomenon will be less than historical records of the system. Alternatively, it was found that the scenarios in which the inclusion of at least 9600 MW of the electric power generation capacity of non-conventional renewable energies proposed by 2034 offer benefits in the reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which contributes to the achievement of the emission reduction objectives of the Paris Agreement.

Suggested Citation

  • Juliana Restrepo-Trujillo & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & Francy N. Jiménez-García & Wilfredo C. Flores & Harold R. Chamorro, 2022. "Scenario Analysis of an Electric Power System in Colombia Considering the El Niño Phenomenon and the Inclusion of Renewable Energies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-17, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:18:p:6690-:d:913535
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/18/6690/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/18/6690/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ghanadan, Rebecca & Koomey, Jonathan G., 2005. "Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1117-1142, June.
    2. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1183-1217.
    3. Ricardo Moreno & Diego Larrahondo, 2021. "The First Auction of Non-Conventional Renewable Energy in Colombia: Results and Perspectives," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 528-535.
    4. Hu, Guangxiao & Ma, Xiaoming & Ji, Junping, 2019. "Scenarios and policies for sustainable urban energy development based on LEAP model – A case study of a postindustrial city: Shenzhen China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 876-886.
    5. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2019. "Expanding versus greening? Long-term energy and emission transitions in Mozambique," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 145-156.
    6. Nieves, J.A. & Aristizábal, A.J. & Dyner, I. & Báez, O. & Ospina, D.H., 2019. "Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-397.
    7. Wenju Cai & Guojian Wang & Boris Dewitte & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Ken Takahashi & Yun Yang & Aude Carréric & Michael J. McPhaden, 2018. "Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 564(7735), pages 201-206, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lisandra Rocha-Meneses & Jhojan Zea & Brandon Martínez & Carlos Arrieta & Mario Luna-del Risco & Sebastián Villegas & Carlos Arredondo, 2023. "Thermodynamic and Economic Simulation of an Organic Rankine Cycle for the Utilization of Combustion Gas Produced in Small Landfills in Antioquia, Colombia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-19, August.
    2. Sergio Cantillo-Luna & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & David Celeita & George Anders, 2023. "Deep and Machine Learning Models to Forecast Photovoltaic Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-24, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Acosta-Pazmiño, Iván P. & Rivera-Solorio, C.I. & Gijón-Rivera, M., 2021. "Scaling-up the installation of hybrid solar collectors to reduce CO2 emissions in a Mexican industrial sector from now to 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    2. Yi Zhao & Gang Lin & Dong Jiang & Jingying Fu & Xiang Li, 2022. "Low-Carbon Development from the Energy–Water Nexus Perspective in China’s Resource-Based City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Pedro Gerber Machado & Ana Carolina Rodrigues Teixeira & Flavia Mendes de Almeida Collaço & Adam Hawkes & Dominique Mouette, 2020. "Assessment of Greenhouse Gases and Pollutant Emissions in the Road Freight Transport Sector: A Case Study for São Paulo State, Brazil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-26, October.
    4. Ismael Mohammed Saeed & Ahmad Tarkhany & Younis Hama & Shwan Al-Shatri, 2023. "Environmental considerations, sustainability opportunities and Iraqi government’s energy policies: a comparative study," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 6879-6895, July.
    5. Dandan Liu & Dewei Yang & Anmin Huang, 2021. "LEAP-Based Greenhouse Gases Emissions Peak and Low Carbon Pathways in China’s Tourist Industry," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-15, January.
    6. El-Sayed, Ahmed Hassan A. & Khalil, Adel & Yehia, Mohamed, 2023. "Modeling alternative scenarios for Egypt 2050 energy mix based on LEAP analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    7. Yang, Dewei & Liu, Dandan & Huang, Anmin & Lin, Jianyi & Xu, Lingxing, 2021. "Critical transformation pathways and socio-environmental benefits of energy substitution using a LEAP scenario modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    8. Wambui, Valentine & Njoka, Francis & Muguthu, Joseph & Ndwali, Patrick, 2022. "Scenario analysis of electricity pathways in Kenya using Low Emissions Analysis Platform and the Next Energy Modeling system for optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Perwez, Usama & Sohail, Ahmed & Hassan, Syed Fahad & Zia, Usman, 2015. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2423-2435.
    10. Lachman, Daniël A., 2011. "Leapfrog to the future: Energy scenarios and strategies for Suriname to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5035-5044, September.
    11. Diego Larrahondo & Ricardo Moreno & Harold R. Chamorro & Francisco Gonzalez-Longatt, 2021. "Comparative Performance of Multi-Period ACOPF and Multi-Period DCOPF under High Integration of Wind Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-15, July.
    12. Hafezi, Reza & Akhavan, AmirNaser & Pakseresht, Saeed & Wood, David A., 2019. "A Layered Uncertainties Scenario Synthesizing (LUSS) model applied to evaluate multiple potential long-run outcomes for Iran's natural gas exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 646-659.
    13. Aikaterini Papapostolou & Charikleia Karakosta & Kalliopi-Anastasia Kourti & Haris Doukas & John Psarras, 2019. "Supporting Europe’s Energy Policy Towards a Decarbonised Energy System: A Comparative Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-26, July.
    14. Yao Qian & Lang Sun & Quanyi Qiu & Lina Tang & Xiaoqi Shang & Chengxiu Lu, 2020. "Analysis of CO 2 Drivers and Emissions Forecast in a Typical Industry-Oriented County: Changxing County, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-21, March.
    15. Farrah Powell & Arielle Levine & Lucia Ordonez-Gauger, 2022. "Climate adaptation in the market squid fishery: fishermen responses to past variability associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles inform our understanding of adaptive capacity in the face of," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-21, July.
    16. Chang, Miguel & Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2023. "Perspectives on purpose-driven coupling of energy system models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    17. Huang, Ying & Liao, Cuiping & Zhang, Jingjing & Guo, Hongxu & Zhou, Nan & Zhao, Daiqing, 2019. "Exploring potential pathways towards urban greenhouse gas peaks: A case study of Guangzhou, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Luis Rivera-González & David Bolonio & Luis F. Mazadiego & Robert Valencia-Chapi, 2019. "Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand Forecast (2018–2040): A LEAP Model Application towards a Sustainable Power Generation System in Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, September.
    19. Fortes, Patrícia & Alvarenga, António & Seixas, Júlia & Rodrigues, Sofia, 2015. "Long-term energy scenarios: Bridging the gap between socio-economic storylines and energy modeling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 161-178.
    20. Peng, Lu & Wang, Lin & Xia, De & Gao, Qinglu, 2022. "Effective energy consumption forecasting using empirical wavelet transform and long short-term memory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:18:p:6690-:d:913535. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.