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Using Decomposition Analysis to Determine the Main Contributing Factors to Carbon Neutrality across Sectors

Author

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  • Hsing-Hsuan Chen

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AB The Hague, The Netherlands)

  • Andries F. Hof

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AB The Hague, The Netherlands
    Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • Vassilis Daioglou

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AB The Hague, The Netherlands
    Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • Harmen Sytze de Boer

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AB The Hague, The Netherlands)

  • Oreane Y. Edelenbosch

    (Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • Maarten van den Berg

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AB The Hague, The Netherlands)

  • Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AB The Hague, The Netherlands)

  • Detlef P. van Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AB The Hague, The Netherlands
    Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands)

Abstract

This paper uses decomposition analysis to investigate the key contributions to changes in greenhouse gas emissions in different scenarios. We derive decomposition formulas for the three highest-emitting sectors: power generation, industry, and transportation (both passenger and freight). These formulas were applied to recently developed 1.5 °C emission scenarios by the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE), emphasising the role of renewables and lifestyle changes. The decomposition analysis shows that carbon capture and storage (CCS), both from fossil fuel and bioenergy burning, renewables and reducing carbon intensity provide the largest contributions to emission reduction in the scenarios. Efficiency improvement is also critical, but part of the potential is already achieved in the Baseline scenario. The relative importance of different emission reduction drivers is similar in the OECD (characterised by relatively high per capita income levels and emissions) and non-OECD (characterised by relatively high carbon intensities of the economy) region, but there are some noteworthy differences. In the non-OECD region, improving efficiency in industry and transport and increasing the share of renewables in power generation are more important in reducing emissions than in the OECD region, while CCS in power generation and electrification of passenger transport are more important drivers in the OECD region.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsing-Hsuan Chen & Andries F. Hof & Vassilis Daioglou & Harmen Sytze de Boer & Oreane Y. Edelenbosch & Maarten van den Berg & Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst & Detlef P. van Vuuren, 2021. "Using Decomposition Analysis to Determine the Main Contributing Factors to Carbon Neutrality across Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2021:i:1:p:132-:d:710947
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Corinne Le Quéré & Jan Ivar Korsbakken & Charlie Wilson & Jale Tosun & Robbie Andrew & Robert J. Andres & Josep G. Canadell & Andrew Jordan & Glen P. Peters & Detlef P. van Vuuren, 2019. "Drivers of declining CO2 emissions in 18 developed economies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(3), pages 213-217, March.
    2. Detlef P. van Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & David E. H. J. Gernaat & Maarten Berg & David L. Bijl & Harmen Sytze Boer & Vassilis Daioglou & Jonathan C. Doelman & Oreane Y. Edelenbosch & Mathijs Harmsen & A, 2018. "Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(5), pages 391-397, May.
    3. G. Marangoni & M. Tavoni & V. Bosetti & E. Borgonovo & P. Capros & O. Fricko & D. E. H. J. Gernaat & C. Guivarch & P. Havlik & D. Huppmann & N. Johnson & P. Karkatsoulis & I. Keppo & V. Krey & E. Ó Br, 2017. "Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(2), pages 113-117, February.
    4. Edelenbosch, O.Y. & van Vuuren, D.P. & Blok, K. & Calvin, K. & Fujimori, S., 2020. "Mitigating energy demand sector emissions: The integrated modelling perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
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